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Bitcoin: Dollar-cost averaging gives you these three under-performers

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It’s safe to say that 2020 has been like no other. Not just in the real world, but in the Bitcoin market as well. The king coin began at $7,200, halved its price by March, halved its supply in May, and doubled its price by October. That’s one hell of a rollercoaster.

Source: Coinstats

Despite this almost consistent price rise since March at least, money and attention have only recently started coming in. What’s even more startling is that this ‘money’ is not in the form of investments, it’s in the form of haphazard trading.

Big-money buys coupled with double-digit leverage built on pipe-dreams don’t last. What will last and give decent returns is a disciplined and structured investing thesis. What’s even more surprising is that a disciplined and structured investing thesis would’ve fetched you a higher return before this bull run, than in it. Don’t believe me? Let’s find out.  

The idea

Once again, we adopt the dollar-cost averaging thesis. A simple everyday investing strategy where the goal is to keep hodling and not to sell. Of course, to measure returns, we must compare the BTC amount hodled to the closing price. 

With the markets raging in recent months, it’s safe to assume that most people would’ve bet on the second half of the year giving a higher return than the topsy-turvy first half of 2020. However, when adopting a dollar-cost averaging strategy and checking the monthly returns, it can be observed that a recovery market gives more returns than a bullish market.

To reiterate, this is how we approach returns and measure them monthly. We adopt a dollar-cost averaging of $10 every day, meaning we buy $10 worth of Bitcoin every day from the start of the month to the end of it. Based on the amount of BTC collected, we measure that against the trading price on the last date of the month, which gives us our returns. We then measure the returns against our initial investments and see if we made a profit or not.

For instance, $10 invested every day in January would result in a total investment of $310. Say you bought 0.005 BTC in the month (this is over 31 days and not on 1 January or 31 January). If Bitcoin’s price increased and on 31 January you sold the 0.005 BTC for $350, your return would be $40 or 12.9 percent over your investment. We’ll be following this approach from January to November. Quick note, for November, we’ll be looking at the first 20 days, because it’s still in progress.

Under-performers

It’s inevitable that some months would’ve given you a negative return. Such is the nature of investing. Even in such a structured investing thesis, three months under-performed, giving lower returns than our amount invested. Those months were – February, March, and June.

Of the trio, the obvious entrant is March. Since the markets crashed by over 50 percent right in the middle of March, it was inevitable to be included. It should be noted that the amount of Bitcoin you could buy in March, at the worst of the crash, is triple the amount you could buy right now. That’s the beauty of averaging. February and June returned negative because the former saw a rapid rise and fall, and the latter because it couldn’t consolidate the steady recovery of the previous months. Here’s how the investment panned out.

  February March June
Amount 10 10 10
Buys 29 31 30
Bitcoin ₿ 0.030150 ₿ 0.046699 ₿ 0.031641
Price at close  $ 8,557.30  $      6,427.68  $      9,150.60
Investment  $    290.00  $          310.00  $          300.00
Value  $    258.00  $          300.16  $          289.53
Change$  $     (32.00)  $             (9.84)  $          (10.47)
Change% -11.0% -3.2% -3.5%

The key takeaway from this table is the last row. February returned -11 percent, March -3.2 percent, and June -3.5 percent. Despite March grabbing the most headlines because of its drop, it had the highest returns of the three. And even with Bitcoin rising above $10,000 in February, it had the worst returns. The reason for this is that there was a lot going on within the month than its highs and lows, which are captured by dollar-cost averaging.

In the next two articles, we’ll look at which months gave flat-ish returns, and which months saw double-digit growth. You’ll never guess where October and November stand.

Source: https://eng.ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-dca-under-performers

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Breaking Down the Effect of Bitcoin’s $3,000 Drop on the Futures Market

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  • Bitcoin has undergone a strong drop since peaking at $19,500 just days ago
  • The coin currently trades at $17,000 as of this article’s writing
  • Analysis compiled by Coinalyze found that over the course of the past few days, $1 billion worth of open interest has been wiped from leading Bitcoin futures exchanges
  • This was accompanied

How the Strong Bitcoin Drop Affected the Futures Market For BTC

Bitcoin has undergone a strong drop since peaking at $19,500 just days ago. The leading cryptocurrency currently trades for $17,000, far below the highs.

The drop came in a short period of time, with liquidations pushing Bitcoin dramatically lower in a wave. The issue was that many market participants were overleveraged, meaning that a small correction triggered liquidations and stop losses, resulting in a rapid cascade lower.

Analysis compiled by Coinalyze found that over the course of the past few days, $1 billion worth of open interest has been wiped from leading Bitcoin futures exchanges.

This was also marked by a spike in trading volume, of $66 billion on futures exchanges and $7 billion on spot exchanges.

These two data points in tandem suggest that the recent correction marked a needed correction in the Bitcoin market to ensure that derivatives players were not getting too far overleveraged.

After the strong correction, the funding rates of top Bitcoin futures markets have reset. The funding rate is the rate that long positions pay short positions on a recurring basis to make sure the price of the future stays in line with the spot market.

According to ByBt, a crypto derivatives tracker, the funding rates of most leading exchanges have reset to the baseline of 0.01% per eight hours. Further, on OKEx in particular, the funding rates of many pairs have actually trended into a negative region, suggesting an increasing number of short takers.

Bitcoin may revert higher if there continues to be low and even negative interest rates and if consolidation takes place.

Par for the Course

Many say that this correction is par for the course in that it should be expected.

Bob Loukas, a long-time Bitcoin investor and macro analyst, recently pointed out that the previous bull run was punctuated with drawdowns similar to the one taking place now:

“Most have a short memory. Remember in Jan 2017 just shy of #Bitcoin ATH’s, boom 34% decline. The 2 months later a sharp rally, new ATH’s, and double boom 34% decline. Never a one way street.”

Countless others in the space have corroborated this, arguing that it is actually healthy for bullish markets to pull back.

Featured Image from Shutterstock
Price tags: xbtusd, btcusd, btcusdt
Charts from TradingView.com
Macro Analysis Predicts Bitcoin Has Begun Rally Toward $100k

Source: https://bitcoinist.com/breaking-down-the-effect-of-bitcoins-3000-drop-on-the-futures-market/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=breaking-down-the-effect-of-bitcoins-3000-drop-on-the-futures-market

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Facebook’s Libra Could Reportedly Arrive in January 2021 in a Scaled-Down Version

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  • Although Facebook failed to launch Libra in mid-2020 as initially planned, the social media giant could do so in early 2021.
  • Finance Times cited three people working on the project claiming that Libra’s long-awaited launch could come in January 2021 but in a scaled-down version.
  • CryptoPotato reported before that Libra already changed its original idea from being a “single global digital currency” to creating a series of various digital coins. 
  • The FT coverage asserted that Libra could see the light of day after receiving approval to operate as a payments service from the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). However, the Libra Association would initially release just a single coin backed one-for-one by the dollar. The other set of currencies would be rolled out later, should the FINMA application is successful.
  • Facebook rattled the financial world last year after announcing plans to launch its own cryptocurrency called Libra. After receiving scrutiny from world watchdogs, the Libra project underwent numerous changes, including executive replacements.
  • Libra suffered more blows when several notable partners left. Those included PayPal, Mastercard, eBay, Vodafone, and more.
  • In an attempt to salvage the project, the Association decided to make further changes by renaming Libra’s wallet provider from Calibra to Novi.

Featured Image Courtesy of AlJazeera

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/facebooks-libra-could-reportedly-arrive-in-january-2021-in-a-scaled-down-version/

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Bitcoin Worth $500 Million Withdrawn From OKEx as Users Look for Other Alternatives

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Users withdrew a record 29,300 BTC from OKEx after the Malta-based cryptocurrency exchange resumed withdrawals yesterday. This comes after bitcoin (BTC) price kickstarted its epic freefall dropping to levels near $16,500 before bouncing back up again. But what is the reason behind the massive bitcoin exodus out of OKEx?

OKEx Sees Significant BTC Withdrawals And Deposits

As per the latest update from on-chain and market analysis firm Glassnode, OKEx users have withdrawn a record 29,300 bitcoins after the exchange gave the green signal for resuming withdrawals yesterday. These BTC transactions amount to roughly $5 billion (considering the current spot rates).

Glassnode also observed a deposit of 21,600 BTC on OKEx. Withdrawals and deposits together had a depreciating effect on the exchange’s overall bitcoin balance which reduced to around 212,000 BTC.

The potential cause behind the massive exodus of bitcoin holdings could be a result of users leaving OKEx in search of other alternatives. Binance, Huobi, and some third party wallets were at the receiving end of the initial bitcoin transfers from the exchange.

Users Dissatisfied With OKex; Seek Other Alternatives

OKex announced the resumption of withdrawals on November 19. Few folks welcomed the developments, but most of them seemed miffed with the exchange’s recent bitcoin and crypto withdrawal suspension, with a lot of users demanding compensation else they make their move to other platforms.

Large BTC Deposits Point To ‘Centralized Failure’ Risks

As reported by CryptoPotato, OKEx had more than 200,000 BTC stored in their wallets during the ‘withdrawal lockdown.’

Although OKEx CEO Jay Hao assured users that their funds are safe and that there’s no “cause for alarm,” the vastness of the above bitcoin stash is pretty alarming. Especially because it is controlled by one single organization.

What’s more disappointing is that the official who had access to the private keys was ‘out of touch’ with the management. The OKEx personnel wasn’t able to reach out to him. This is not desirable since it poses huge risks to these BTC stashes falling prey to coordinated attacks that target centralized points of failure.

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-worth-5-billion-withdrawn-from-okex-as-users-look-for-other-alternatives/

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