We are currently part of an unusual Bitcoin rally. Unlike Ethereum, Bitcoin hasn’t surpassed its highs from 2019. It hasn’t even come close, to be fair. However, many in the community remain bullish about Bitcoin only because it is not dropping from its yearly-high levels. As simple as that. At press time, the world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading at a price of $11,896.
Now, in the past, such credentials have rarely mattered for many times, we have witnessed a stark decline when Bitcoin has consolidated at a range for more than 48 hours. However, the present bully cycle might be different from its previous endeavors, hinting at a hypothesis that Bitcoin is inevitably changing.
Willy Woo, the creator of the Woo Bull charts and avid Bitcoin supporter, recently explained that Bitcoin’s 4-year bullish/bearish cycle is usually triggered by “selling pressure reduction” created every 4 years by the halving event.
He argued that the Bitcoin halving almost creates an “impulse” which leads to resonance, following which, the market starts falling in place like properly aligned dominoes.
However, Woo was quick to highlight that the impact of this “impulse” varies from cycle to cycle, so the performance of previous cycles cannot be taken as an example for the future market. He added,
“As the sell pressure reduction from each halvening cycle reduces, the impulse has less strength. Eventually the scale of halvenings become insignificant, Bitcoin’s 4 year cycle will start to transition into the resonance of traditional markets (~10 years).”
Do BTC ROI cycles vary over time?
Let’s look into an analysis done by AMBCrypto a few months back.
From the attached table, we can observe that the boom-bust cycle has become more stretched over time and the ROIs have decreased from cycle to cycle, as mentioned by Woo in his aforementioned tweet.
Now, it has been estimated that the 4th cycle, which is the ongoing one after the Bitcoin halving on 11 May, would be carried out for 1758.9 days and Bitcoin would eventually peak at $118,000 on 22 August 2022. However, as mentioned previously, the calculations have been done under a set of assumptions. Hence, the aforementioned predictions are not set in stone. They will possibly be in the same ballpark though.
Is Bitcoin’s cycle reacting to Black Swan events?
After Bitcoin’s implosion on 13 March 2020? Absolutely.
Although Bitcoin’s cyclic pattern has attained a certain level of maturity, the fact that Bitcoin strongly mirrored stocks during the crash in March is a glaring indication of the fact that the crypto-asset is not there yet.
The crash of March 2020 was the first real adversity faced by Bitcoin, an episode that highlighted its flaws that it is not completely uncorrelated to the traditional market. And of course, it cannot be, especially considering the fact that its total market cap is just a little over $200 billion.
Hence, in spite of behavioral maturity, Bitcoin is probably still vulnerable to movement in the traditional asset class, and that is an undeniable truth at the moment.
Was This The 3rd Largest Hack In Crypto History? Data Shows $280 Million Drained From KuCoin
Newly aggregated data suggests that the hackers that recently compromised KuCoin’s hot wallets may have taken more than the estimated $150 million, as per the exchange’s report. Considering the updated numbers, the KuCoin hack would be the third-largest in history, with approximately $280 million stolen.
The KuCoin Hack: $280M Taken Instead Of $150M?
As CryptoPotato reported over the weekend, an unknown group of hackers exploited the hot wallets of the popular cryptocurrency exchange KuCoin. The platform quickly issued an official statement informing that the total amount stolen equaled $150 million worth of various digital assets.
Furthermore, KuCoin guaranteed that the exchange’s insurance fund will fully reimburse users.
However, the stolen amount could be significantly higher, according to the popular cryptocurrency researcher Larry Cermak. By examining wallets “very likely” associated with KuCoin, he estimated that the amount is actually $280 million, instead of $150 million.
He admitted that some of the tokens have been “frozen, forked, and blacklisted,” but the numbers he came up “don’t reflect that.” Consequently, Cermak questioned KuCoin’s ability to indeed cover the stolen funds from its insurance fund.
Cermak also offered a list of the coins “likely” to be recovered – Velo ($76 million), Tether ($22 million), Orion ($10 million), KardiaChain ($10 million), Ocean Protocol ($9 million), VIDT Datalink ($7 million), NOIA Network ($5 million), and Covesting ($600,000). This equals about 50% of all stolen funds.
Was This The Third-Largest Crypto Hack Ever?
If Cermak’s data is accurate, the KuCoin hack would be the third-largest to date in the cryptocurrency field.
The most significant one came in early January 2018. The victim was the Japanese digital asset exchange Coincheck.
After announcing that the platform has seized all NEM deposits, Coincheck later froze all NEM sales, purchases, and withdrawals. Later on, the exchange confirmed that perpetrators had swiped about $535 million worth of NEM. Interestingly, all stolen funds were grabbed again from the exchange’s hot wallets.
The second-largest hack occurred on maybe the most famous Bitcoin Japanese exchange – MT.GOX. In early 2014, the platform suspended all transactions, closed the site, and declared bankruptcy. A few months down the road, it became clear that MT.GOX was drained for about 850,000 Bitcoins – worth about $460 million at the time, and a lot more as of today’s BTC values.
According to a Tokyo-based security company that presented evidence in 2015, “most or all of the missing bitcoins were stolen straight out of the MT.GOX hot wallet over time.”
BTC Price Analysis: Is Bitcoin Ready To Break $11,000 As Crypto Market Cap Reclaims $350B?
Bitcoin price has finally broken bullish out of a 3-day channel (orange) and making good progress towards the psychological $11,000 level above.
The return of $9 billion to the global crypto market today has allowed BTC to return above $10,900 for the first time in 7 days and caused over $9 million worth of short liquidations on BitMEX – according to Datamish figures.
Avast majority of altcoins are also enjoying positive returns as Bitcoin lifts the rest of the market.
Despite the breakout, bearish traders are still putting up a strong fight right now. The $10,900 price point is seeing a lot of selling pressure bear down on the uptrend and is hindering Bitcoin’s current throwback rally attempt.
Price Levels to Watch in the Short-term
On the weekly BTC/USD, we can see that bulls are battling to break above the previous weekly open at $10,920. This is the first major resistance standing in the way of bitcoin’s progress towards $11K. Above this price point, we also have the $10,970 level which should create some friction in the uptrend.
Looking at the price action more closely on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that bulls are trying to launch off from the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $10,832, which recently flipped from resistance to support. This is our first major support as BTC tries to reclaim $11K. If bears succeed in overcoming this key level, then we should expect to see prices fall back on the former channel resistance at around $10,810, and potentially dip back inside on to the 200 EMA (red) at $10,780.
Beneath that, we have the channel median line (dashed line) at $10,730 and the 50 EMA (blue) at $10,695 as additional supports.
Should bulls manage to break the $11,000 mark and maintain momentum, then the next test will be to conquer the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $11,150. With BTC already at 63 on the 4-hour RSI indicator, it’s possible that reaching this area will push the leading crypto into the overbought region and cause a sharp correction – be aware.
Total market capital: $353 billion
Bitcoin market capital: $201 billion
Bitcoin dominance: 57.0%
*Data by Coingecko
Bitstamp BTC/USD Weekly Chart
Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-Hour Chart
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.
Cardano’s bullish case strengthens as IOHK and UN team up
IOHK and the United Nations have offered a $10,000 bounty for developers to use Cardano’s blockchain.
While major altcoins look to bounce off last week’s sell-off, Cardano’s strong performance over the past three days continues this Monday.
The ADA token has jumped 10.64% in the past 24 hours to see the crypto asset’s price hit $0.105. The 9th ranked cryptocurrency is the top-performing coin among the top 10, ahead of Bitcoin SV, ChainLink, and Bitcoin Cash.
Meanwhile, the rest of the market is looking to consolidate fresh gains after a largely green weekend extended during the Asian trading session.
Bitcoin has gained 2% to hit highs of $10,920 before retreating to around $10,850 as of writing. Ethereum, which has struggled below $400 for over three weeks, has gained around 1.46% to trade at $358. XRP/USD remains mostly unchanged on the 24-hour log as bulls try to keep bears at bay around $0.24.
Cardano flips bullish
ADA/USD sank to lows of $0.075 on September 23 to see bears threaten to push prices lower and drop Cardano out of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap. The past five days have however included 4 green daily candles, with higher highs and higher lows seeing bulls break above $0.10 for the first time in a week.
Yesterday, ADA/USD gained by more than 5% to register a daily close at $0.102 before rallying in the Asian trading session to reach an intraday high of $0.106.
Cardano may thus have plenty of upside room if bulls sustain pressure above prevailing levels amid a confluence of bullish technical and fundamental indicators.
For the latter, the network’s move to a new epoch in the next five days will see decentralization introduced via the Shelley upgrade move to 38%.
Recently, IOHK also announced a partnership with the United Nations that aims to promote the use of blockchain to help achieve the UN’s sustainable development goals (SDG) on poverty, inequality, and the environment among others.
The partnership includes a $10,000 bounty set aside for developers who will use Cardano blockchain infrastructure to create open-source and scalable projects geared towards the above goals.
Cardano is looking to break above an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, with a nice head and shoulder trend formation on the cards. The cryptocurrency is also looking strong on the daily chart where the 50 SMA and 100 SMA provide the next target at $0.109 and $0.113 respectively.
If the expected breakout happens, action will likely push ADA/USD to $0.12, with an extended bullish scenario bringing $0.15 into play. On the flip side, the 20SMA and 50 SMA provide support at $0.09 and $0.08 on the 4-hour chart.
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