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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Waiting for More Momentum

Bitcoin recently broke to the upside of a short-term range, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. However, momentum has yet to pick up and bulls seem hesitant for now. The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the climb is more […]

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Bitcoin recently broke to the upside of a short-term range, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. However, momentum has yet to pick up and bulls seem hesitant for now.


The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the climb is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. The gap between the indicators is widening to reflect stronger bullish momentum, and price has been finding support at the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point.

Volume remains subdued as traders appear to be holding out for the next big catalyst before piling on long positions. ADX is also below 25 to confirm market consolidation.

Stochastic is still heading higher to reflect the presence of bullish pressure, but the oscillator is already closing in on the overbought region to signal exhaustion among buyers. Turning lower could show that sellers are about to take over. If so, another pullback to the range may be in order.

BTC/USD Chart – TradingView

Bitcoin could see more upside now that the halving is near, although many have argued that this phenomenon has been priced in for quite some time. This could lead to massive profit-taking during the actual event before a longer-term rally ensues.

Also, analysts have compared the recent weak breakout to a similar pattern in 2008, which was followed by a sharp drop in price before a slow recovery. Still, it’s worth noting that bitcoin traded back above the $8,000 in the weeks that followed back then.

Risk appetite remains a key factor in driving bitcoin prices these days as the cryptocurrency appears to be tracking the performance of higher-yielding assets like stocks and commodities. Earnings data are worth watching throughout the week as this could impact overall sentiment.


Images courtesy of TradingView

The post Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Waiting for More Momentum appeared first on BitcoinerX.

Source: https://bitcoinerx.com/price-analysis/bitcoin-price-analysis-btc-usd-waiting-for-more-momentum/

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Bitcoin Rising Correlation With Traditional Market Undermines ‘Non-Related Asset’ Narrative

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Despite the fact that Bitcoin has been long-touted as a “non-correlated asset”, there have been many instances when the largest cryptocurrency behaved similarly to the mainstream market.

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Altcoins undergoing another major pullback was occasioned with occurs not as drop significantly in the traditional markets and additionally in gold’s price which took a massive hit as markets opened. Amid rising fears of the pandemic, the US Stock market fell to a 2-months low with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 700 points in the afternoon trading sessions.

Santiment’s tweet read,

“As has been the case since Black Thursday, the correlation between the US stock markets & gold, and BTC, ETH, and rest of the crypto markets has been much higher now than any year in crypto’s history.”

Additionally, data from Skew shows that the one-year realized correlation between Bitcoin and S&P 500 reached 52.9%.

Source: Skew

Commenting on the latest price movement, popular Podcaster, Lark Davis tweeted,

“Historically the S&P 500 has done poorly in September, and quite badly in October of election years. Bitcoin’s high correlation to the equity markets could mean that we are in for some big bumps over the next 6 weeks. GOOD NEWS is that November is usually a strong month.”

Besides, the one-year realized correlation between Bitcoin and Gold was also hovering a little below its ATH. Notably, prior to 2018, the Bitcoin-Gold correlation was negative and hence the narrative was mostly dismissed. Similar was the case with other tech stocks or stock indices such as VIX. The recent trend could also potentially signal to the point Bitcoin has slowly evolved into a mainstream asset over the last two years and hence its correlations with non-crypto assets are important to gauge its price movement in the coming days.

The coronavirus crisis has impacted every industry, from tourism to real estate, health care to manufacturing and the cryptocurrency industry is not exempt. While Bitcoin did start with an impressive streak in the first quarter of 2020, it hit a snag as the pandemic’s economic blow quickly affected all markets. Similar to the traditional market, the collective crypto market crashed by more than 50% from its February high.


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Author: Ketaki Dixit




Experienced writer and editor with a demonstrated history of working in the industry. Skilled in Copywriting, Web Content Writing, Copy Editing, Writing, Cryptocurrency News Writing, and News Editing.

Source: https://coingape.com/bitcoin-rising-correlation-traditional-market-undermines-non-related-asset-narrative/

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First Mover: Bitcoin’s Latest Sell-Off Gets Crypto Traders Mulling Election Chaos

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In seeking to explain Monday’s sell-off across traditional markets and cryptocurrencies, the digital-asset firm QCP Capital rattled off a list of seven major market events that occurred in Septembers past, from the 1929 stock-market crash to the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008. 

There might be some deep human connection with the fall equinox — when the days turn shorter than nights in the northern hemisphere and summer turns to fall, according to the firm. “The human nervous system typically undergoes major measurable perturbations” during this period, QCP wrote Monday in its daily market update. 

The outlook is cloudy but there’s a risk of a steep plunge similar to the sell-off in March that took bitcoin prices to their 2020 lows just below $4,000. One catalyst could be the upcoming U.S. presidential election, which has become more contentious in recent days following the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. 

Bitcoin (BTC) on Monday posted its biggest drop in three weeks, retreating from the psychological $11,000 hurdle that the cryptocurrency until just recently had seemed poised to eclipse. There was also an apparent unwind of the recent frenzy in decentralized finance, or DeFi, with associated digital assets from ether (ETH) to Aave (LEND ) and Curve (CRV) falling even harder.    

“It got to a point where the market demand just kind of got exhausted, and there wasn’t enough new capital flowing to sustain the push higher,” said John Todaro, an analyst for the digital-asset firm TradeBlock. 

Despite recent bets in foreign-exchange markets that massive money printing by the Federal Reserve and other central banks might drive down the value of the dollar, investors apparently sought refuge in the U.S. currency. The U.S. Dollar Index charted its biggest gain in a month. 

“The dollar’s not dead, the dollar’s a survivor,” Denis Vinokourov, head of research for the cryptocurrency prime broker Bequant, said in a WhatsApp audio interview. “It’s a real flight to quality, and cash is king, and cash is the dollar, nothing else. The dollar rules.”

Monday’s sell-off nearly wiped out 2020 gains for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of large U.S. stocks, though ether, bitcoin and gold are still sitting on substantial 2020 gains. 

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Bitcoin percentage year-to-date returns versus ether, gold and the S&P 500.
Source: TradingView

There’s a lot of major factors buffeting the global economy and geopolitical landscape, as the coronavirus continues to spread and the U.S. elections approach. President Donald Trump is pushing to nominate and confirm a pick to the high court prior to the election, even though Republican leadership had previously suggested such a step would be inappropriate

Gavin Smith, CEO of the cryptocurrency firm Panxora, says that if the election leads to political turmoil in the U.S., he could see the largest cryptocurrency trading as low as $7,000. 

“The danger to the crypto market is much the same as we saw in March,” Smith said. “If you get that big sell-off in risk assets, there will be that liquidation of bitcoin.”

He says central-bank money printing should eventually push up inflation, which could be a catalyst for higher bitcoin prices, though “that’s very much a 2021 story.” 

“When we’ve seen the election past, all of a sudden it’s going to become clear just how much money has been pumped into the system,” Smith said. 

A battle over confirmation of Ginsburg’s successor could derail any last-ditch efforts to revive any effort to provide new U.S. fiscal stimulus, even amid growing signs that the economic recovery is stalling. 

The Federal Reserve could step in to increase its pace of money printing, but any such decision would have to be made on an emergency basis, since the next regular meeting isn’t scheduled until Nov. 5, in the days after the election.

The Fed has already cut interest rates close to zero and is buying U.S. Treasury bonds and government-backed mortgage securities at a pace of $120 billion a month. Chair Jerome Powell reiterated in prepared testimony for a scheduled Congressional appearance Tuesday that officials “remain committed to using our tools to do what we can, for as long as it takes, to ensure that the recovery will be as strong as possible.”

But Mati Greenspan, founder of the foreign-exchange and cryptocurrency analysis firm, Quantum Economics, told subscribers in a daily newsletter, said that the bar will be high for further action. 

“The Federal Reserve and other central banks have already injected quite a lot of stimulus and are already committed to keeping rates suppressed for a long time to come,” Greenspan wrote. “There doesn’t seem to be much in the way of action from them for markets to look forward to.”

btc-gold-and-stocks-correlations-90d
Bitcoin’s price correlations have increased recently with both U.S. stocks and gold.
Source: CoinDesk Research

Bitcoin Watch

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Bitcoin daily chart. (TradingView)
Source: TradingView

Bitcoin fell by more than 4% on Monday, confirming a bear flag breakdown on the daily chart. 

The bearish technical pattern indicates the bounce from the recent low of $9,869 has ended, and the pullback from the August high of $12,476 has resumed. 

Analysts foresee a more significant decline in the cryptocurrency if the global stock markets extend Monday’s sell-off. 

“Sustained risk-off in broader equity markets will lead to heavy offers across major cryptocurrencies,” Matthew Dibb, Stack Funds’ co-founder and COO, told CoinDesk. “Bitcoin may revisit September lows” around $9,870.

Monday’s drop has boosted demand for put options or bearish bets. According to data source Skew, the one-month put-call skew has increased to over 4% from -3% on Sunday. The positive figure indicates that put options are drawing higher prices than calls. 

However, three- and six-month skews remain negative, meaning the long-term bias remains bullish. 

– Omkar Godbole

Read More: Equity Markets Turmoil Could Push Bitcoin Below $10K, Say Analysts

Token Watch

Uniswap (UNI): Arca Funds chief legal officer argues that tokens  probably aren’t securities under the SEC’s test

Swerve (SWRV): Liquidity in this three-week-old automated market maker for stablecoins has dried up following the conclusion of a “boosted reward period,” according to Messari.  

What’s Hot

U.S. regulator OCC says banks can provide services to stablecoin issuers (CoinDesk)

Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com is reportedly to help the nation’s central bank develop infrastructure for its cash-equivalent digital currency (CoinDesk) 

ECB President Christine Lagarde says digital euro might provide alternative to “private digital currencies” (CoinDesk)

Bitcoin miner Bitfarms leases 2K rigs from BlockFills, has options for 7K more (CoinDesk)

Analogs

The latest on the economy and traditional finance

Bank shares plunge on reports Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan moved suspicious funds (CNBC)

Key Republican senators propose $28B in airline assistance to avoid job cuts (Reuters)

U.S. government debt seen hitting 195% of GDP 2050, up from 98% this year and 79% in 2019 (Bloomberg)

Fed Chair Powell says small businesses might need “direct fiscal support” (FT) 

Commercial mortgage bonds lag behind broad credit-market recovery (WSJ)

Unemployed cutting back on consumer spending as extra benefits expire (WSJ)

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Source: https://www.coindesk.com/first-mover-bitcoin-cryptocurrencies-september-election-chaos

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World’s First Bitcoin ETF Approved with Expected Launch in Bermuda by End of Year

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The first-ever Bitcoin ETF will be launched on the Bermuda Stock Exchange (BSX) by Hashdex, a regulated Brazilian fund manager, and Nasdaq after garnering approval for the “Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index” four days ago.

The news continues Bermuda’s legacy of being a crypto-friendly offshore international business and financial center.

Three million Class E shares will be issued for trading and the exchange-traded fund is expected to go live by the end of 2020.

Hashdex currently boasts $46.4 in assets under management across four funds and uses Xapo, Kingdom Trust, and Vo1t for services relating to crypto custody. KPMG is the firm’s auditor.

‘When Bitcoin ETF?’

For years now, many Bitcoin proponents and cryptocurrency enthusiasts have been asking the question “when Bitcoin ETF?” While one is officially on the way for the Bermuda Stock Exchange, the prospect of such a regulated, insured, and institutional-focused vehicle for BTC exposure appearing on exchanges in the United States appears grim.

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Bids from various parties — such as the Winklevoss twins, VanEck, SolidX, and Wilshire Pheonix — have all been rejected by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or pulled by the applicants. The securities regulator has frequently claimed that applicants failed to provide enough evidence that the BTC market is resistant to manipulation.

Speaking on the matter was the SEC’s Chair, Jay Clayton, who said that a Bitcoin ETF in the US is possible, but there’s a lot of work to be done.

‘Biggest Front-Running Opportunity of Your Life’

However, former Goldman Sachs executive and well-known fund manager Raoul Pal believes that a Bitcoin ETF is coming to the U.S. very soon. He recently stated:

“I’m going to give you the biggest front-running opportunity of your life: they will get an ETF across the line. There will be billions of dollars that pour into it. Every pension plan will allocate some money to it. Every family office will allocate some money to it. And the more the price goes up, the more they will allocate.”

Whether or not Pal’s prediction comes to fruition remains to be seen. However, it stands to reason that the SEC is objectively aware of the BTC market’s continued maturation and correlation to the equities markets. As such, it may take a more favorable stance as new Bitcoin ETF applications come across its desks.

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/worlds-first-bitcoin-etf-approved-with-expected-launch-in-bermuda-by-end-of-year/

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