Bitcoin (BTC) greets another week with a push to $12,000 and its highest weekly close since after it hit $20,000 — will it return?
Cointelegraph takes a look at five things that stand to impact BTC price performance in the coming five days.
BTC: A two-and-half-year record weekly close
Bitcoin hitting $12,000 again early Monday was more than just a boon for traders — in doing so, BTC/USD sealed its highest close on weekly time frames since January 2018.
This means that no single week of price action ended at such high levels since, including during the height of last year’s bull market.
Having pleased analysts for several months in the short term, Bitcoin thus followed through on longer timeframes — a crucial move to cement the upward trajectory.
Now, investors seeking confirmation that the bull market will continue may well have received it — versus daily and hourly developments, a multi-year high weekly close is significant.
BTC/USD was thus up 2.4% on the day, with weekly gains sitting at 7% and monthly returns at over 30%.
Price-wise, $12,000 represents the highest that Bitcoin has reached since June 2019, three months after a Q2 bull market took the cryptocurrency from $4,000 to $13,800 — a level which this cycle has yet to reach.
BTC/USD 7-day price chart. Source: Coin360
Trump pushes fiat instability
Bitcoin’s price surge comes the week after United States president Donald Trump added to existing geopolitical tensions by banning Chinese social media platform TikTok.
The resulting escalation of ties with Beijing adds to existing weakness in the U.S. dollar and ongoing concerns over Coronavirus — a perfect storm for a flight to safe haven assets.
At the same time, Trump signed a series of executive orders on Coronavirus stimulus, something which now has a curious impact on markets which are already subject to heavy intervention from the Federal Reserve.
This time around, however, the measures will have a smaller direct effect on the average American. A payroll tax delay, for example, does not go far enough in the eyes of critics.
“This fake tax cut would also be a big shock to workers who thought they were getting a tax cut when it was only a delay,” Bloomberg quoted Democratic Senator Ron Wyden as saying in a statement.
“These workers would be hit with much bigger payments down the road.”
It is this delaying the inevitable financial cost to personal wealth, which lies at the heart of the pro-Bitcoin argument — high-time-preference economic behavior ultimately costs much more in the long term than the immediate benefit to the target audience.
Bitcoin correlation: stocks or gold?
Where Bitcoin might head in the short term is now less clear cut when considering its historical performance versus other macro assets.
The period since March, which saw a cross-asset crash, was marked first by a correlation to stock markets, and then to safe havens and specifically gold.
Gold hit its all-time highs in U.S. dollar terms weeks before Bitcoin began significantly gaining, and its run has continued — until now.
A slight correction took XAU/USD to $2,030 from highs of near $2,075 — should the trend continue, Bitcoin may likewise cool off from its upward momentum.
Nonetheless, as Cointelegraph reported, incoming action from the Fed looks set to buoy the precious metal further in a “wildly bullish” policy shift to expanding inflation way beyond its current rate of 0.6%.
Stocks were likewise looking less stable — analysts were warning over fallout for developing markets thanks to Turkey’s currency crisis, and China sanctioning U.S. officials over Hong Kong added to pressure.
“Bitcoin up as tensions rise in Asia. Capital flight out of Asia taking the Bitcoin express,” RT host Max Keiser summarized, adding:
“You can’t take it with you, unless it’s Bitcoin – then you can take IT ALL with you (Something near impossible with Gold).”
Futures gaps open below for BTC/USD
Another volatile weekend has opened up a classic feature for short-term Bitcoin price forecasting — a “gap” in CME Bitcoin futures markets.
The weekend’s volatility means that futures finished Friday at $11,680 and began again at $11,750. The resulting void provides a key price target, with Bitcoin historically filling such “gaps” within days or even hours.
Last week saw just such a setup emerge, with volatility aiding the trend after weeks of flat price action removed gaps from the market altogether.
Another gap lower down at $9,700 still remains from July.
CME Bitcoin futures chart showing recent latest gaps. Source: TradingView
All on schedule
For quant analyst PlanB, creator of Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow price forecasting model, the bullish action of the past weeks is exactly to be expected.
Earlier in August, PlanB noted that BTC/USD was filling out the stock-to-flow chart according to historical precedent — since May’s block subsidy halving, dots have confirmed that current behavior falls within the rules.
Bitcoin stock-to-flow chart as of August 10. Source: Digitalik
On the topic of major players flipping bullish, meanwhile, he added last week that “when bitcoin was $4k in 2019, lot of big accounts were bearish, predicting $1k.”
Behind the scenes, however, signs were that if $6,000 appeared, the mood would change to favor the bulls.
“That actually happened, we shot through $6k. Now many were bearish at $9k .. $13.5k will be interesting,” PlanB wrote.
XRP Entered Key Accumulation Zone, Eyeing A Move Towards $0.28
XRP entered key accumulation zone as the price was in a lackluster action as of late with both sellers and buyers being unable to garner clear control over the near-term trend, hovering around $0.20 as we are reading more in the latest Ripple price news.
The consolidation came about as a result of the Bitcoin movement since it was struggling to gain any clear momentum as the price oscillates between the low region of $10,200 and the higher of $11,200. Because XRP entered key accumulation zone moving closely with BTC and the rest of the market, where it will head next will depend largely on whether the entire market will recapture the bullish momentum. With that being said, one analyst noted that the cryptocurrency is consolidating above the long-term base of support and says that this support will ultimately provide another major boost and will allow the price to start rallying towards $0.28 next.
If the XRP price moves to $0.28, it will mark a 20% climb from where it is trading now. at the time of writing, XRP is trading up over 3% at a current price of $0.24 which is around the same price level where it was trading over the past few days. The price dropped as low as $0.22 before it was able to find any major support with the bulls stepping up and making gains on the strong uptrend where this level was reached.
Bitcoin helped in the rebound as the benchmark cryptocurrency pushed from $10,200 to highs of $10,800 created a tailwind which lifted most of the assets higher. In order for XRP to continue ascending in the near-term, the bulls will have to continue defending against further losses. While speaking about where he expects XRP To go further, one analyst explained that the recent reaction to $0.22 shows how strong the base of support is for this cryptocurrency:
“XRP: The market is overly bearish, but the markets are actually on impressive support zones to accumulate some positions. Similar to XRP. Patience pays. Looking at some longs here, which could be towards $0.28 first in the next month.”
How altcoins such as XRP will trend in the upcoming weeks will depend on Bitcoin. The number one cryptocurrency has to be able to see sustained momentum if it reaches the $11,000 resistance.
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Bitcoin price recovers, resistance at $11,000
The Bitcoin price is on a recovery path after bouncing off from a support zone. The immediate resistance is at $11,000 but $12,500 of Sep 2020 highs is ideal.
- The Bitcoin price recovers, resistance at $11,000
- Russia proposes a bill which categorizes Bitcoin and crypto as property
- Binance banned in Russia
- A bill in Israel may see Bitcoin and crypto classified as currencies
The Bitcoin price is bouncing back, snapping back to trend, reversing blips of early this week. From trackers, the BTC/USD pair has pared losses but is galloping ahead of ETH.
Crypto as Currency?
Amid optimism is news from Israel.
According to a local report, four members from Knesset–Israel’s legislative body, submitted a bill on Sep 22. If adopted, the rule will significantly change the way cryptocurrencies are taxed.
Specifically, the bill seeks to change digital assets’ classification from property to currency under the country’s Income Tax Ordinance.
This shall lift the taxation burden of coin holders who currently pay 25 percent as tax on capital gains. Should Bitcoin (and cryptocurrencies) be deemed as currencies, capital gains will drop to 15 percent.
The State of Israel can be among the leaders in the field of digital currencies. If only it recognizes the use of the blockchain as a currency for everything. It is precisely in this period when the economic future is unclear It is possible to promote digital payment options due to the social distance that has been forced on us.
Russia’s Strict Proposal
In Russia, a radical proposal by the Ministry of Finance was tabled to the State Duma—the parliament, on Sep 24. Controversial, the Ministry of Finance astonishingly considers cryptocurrencies as tools of money laundering and terrorist financing.
Consequently, it proposes holders to submit any holding above $1,300 or (100K Rubles) to tax authorities.
Failure attracts a jail term of up to three years. The softer option will be forced labor as punishment. The only good news this proposal bears is the classification of Bitcoin and crypto as property.
However, this is to pave ways for tax authorities who can proceed to charge capital gains.
On the same day, Binance—the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, was banned by the Roskomnadzor.
Baffling, the agency says the site’s homepage promotes the buying and selling of Bitcoin. It is the second time in three months the agency is blacklisting Binance.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
The Bitcoin price is swinging between bearish and neutral judging from candlestick arrangements and technical indicators.
In the last day of trading, BTC has recovered losses against the USD and is flat. However, it is outperforming ETH in the daily and weekly charts.
Candlestick arrangements in the daily chart suggest strength in the immediate term.
There is a double bar bullish reversal pattern from the 61.8 and 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level of July to September trade range.
Since prices are back above the middle BB, bulls are likely to edge higher in the immediate term.
Strong liquidation levels is expected at $11,200 and $11,500. This is Sep 3 highs. A sharp, high-volume break above this level will nullify bearish attempts of Sep 1 and 2 and probably paves the way for bulls to retest $12,500.
BTC/USD Technical Indicators
- Support lies between $10,100 and $10,400
- Resistance is at $11,000 and $11,500.
- Most traders (88 percent) are bullish from sentiment analysis.
Disclaimer. The information provided is not a trading advice. Cryptopolitan.com holds no liability for any investments made based on the information provided on this page. We strongly recommend independent research and/or consultation with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.
Another record-breaking WBTC mint – Bitcoin demand on Ethereum to grow?
On 25 September, crypto-trading firm Alameda Research minted the largest-ever quantity of Wrapped Bitcoin [WBTC]. News of the development was shared on Twitter by WBTC, with the tweet going on to note that the mint was worth 2,317 BTC, equivalent to $25 million.
In fact, Alameda Research beat the previous record set by Singapore-based Three Arrows Capital. Interestingly, Three Arrows Capital completed the single largest issuance of new WBTC tokens by any merchant after minting 2,316 WBTC on 24 September through Bitgo.
Before Three Arrows, Alameda Research had set the previous record with most tokens issues in a single mint. As it reclaimed its throne, Sam Bankman-Fried, Founder of Alameda Research, challenged the CEO of Three Arrows Capital to keep the friendly competition going.
— SBF (@SBF_Alameda) September 25, 2020
Despite the back and forth, Alameda Research has been leading the mint and issuance of WBTC with 37,609 tokens. On the contrary, others like CoinList and imToken followed with 28,162 and 8,991 WBTC, respectively.
Bitcoin’s demand on DeFi has been growing, including other platforms. According to data provided by Dune Analytics, the supply of WBTC has shot up by over 13,000% since January and has remained the most significant among other synthetic forms of BTC. As per Arcane Research, WBTC saw the most BTC locked, holding 67% of the total amount of Bitcoin represented on the Ethereum blockchain. RenBTC followed at the second position, with about 24% market share and HBTC with about 4%.
Bitcoin accounts for almost 5% of the TVL in DeFi now, indicating a rise in the share of DeFi capitalization represented by BTC which itself has risen by 150% in the past three and a half months.
At press time, DeFi Pulse was reporting the total BTC locked in DeFi to be at 125k. This was after the slump witnessed on 21 September, a slump that took the value of BTC down, along with the BTC locked in DeFi. The value on Monday had dipped to 82.16k, but quickly jumped back and, at the time of writing, was noting a peak.
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