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Bitcoin price volatility expected as 47% of BTC options expire next Friday

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The open interest on Bitcoin (BTC) options is just 5% short of their all-time high, but nearly half of this amount will be terminated in the upcoming September expiry. 

Although the current $1.9 billion worth of options signal that the market is healthy, it’s still unusual to see such heavy concentration on short-term options.

By itself, the current figures should not be deemed bullish nor bearish but a decently sized options open interest and liquidity is needed to allow larger players to participate in such markets. 

Total BTC options open interest

Total BTC options open interest. Source: Skew

Notice how BTC open interest has just crossed the $2 billion barrier. Coincidentally that’s the same level that was achieved at the past two expiries. It is normal, (actually, it’s expected)  that this number will decrease after each calendar month settlement.

There is no magical level that must be sustained, but having options spread throughout the months enables more complex trading strategies. 

More importantly, the existence of liquid futures and options markets helps to support spot (regular) volumes.

Risk-aversion is currently at low levels

To assess whether traders are paying large premiums on BTC options, implied volatility needs to be analyzed. Any unexpected substantial price movement will cause the indicator to increase sharply, regardless of whether it is a positive or negative change.

Volatility is commonly known as a fear index as it measures the average premium paid in the options market. Any sudden price changes often cause market makers to become risk-averse, hence demanding a larger premium for option trades.

BTC 3-month options implied volatility

BTC 3-month options implied volatility. Source: Skew

The above chart clearly shows a massive spike in mid-March as BTC dropped to its yearly lows at $3,637 to quickly regain the $5K level. This unusual movement caused BTC volatility to reach its highest levels in two years.

This is the opposite of the last ten days, as BTC’s 3-month implied volatility ceded to 63% from 76%. Although not an unusual level, the rationale behind such relatively low options premium demands further analysis.

There’s been an unusually high correlation between BTC and U.S. tech stocks over the past six months. Although it is impossible to pinpoint the cause and effect, Bitcoin traders betting on a decoupling may have lost their hope.

BTC (red) correlation to the U.S. technology sector (blue)

BTC (red) correlation to the U.S. technology sector (blue). Source: Tradingview

The above chart depicts an 80% average correlation over the past six months. Regardless of the rationale behind the correlation, it partially explains the recent reduction in  BTC volatility.

The longer it takes for a relevant decoupling to happen, the less incentives traders have to bet on aggressive BTC price moves. An even more crucial indicator of this is traders’ lack of conviction and this might open the path for more substantial price swings.

There’s an unusual concentration of short-term options

Most of the relevant Bitcoin options mature on the last Friday of every month and some concentration on the shortest ones is expected due to covered call trades. 

This strategy consists of buying BTC either via spot (regular) or futures markets and simultaneously selling call options.

A covered call is closer to a fixed-income trade, aiming to pocket the substantial option premiums on BTC markets. At expiry, this trader will be liquidating both his positions on spot, futures, and options markets.

BTC options by open interest

BTC options by open interest. Source: Tradingview

The unusual situation displayed on the  chart above shows how 53% of the 2020 calendar options are set to mature on Friday, Sept. 25. 

By comparison, this is roughly the same amount of open interest for Ether (ETH) options expiring in Sept. and Dec. 

There might never be a reasonable explanation for why BTC options are so heavily concentrated but a similar phenomenon occurred back in June which cut BTC options open interest by $900 million. 

As of now, there are no signs of weakness from options markets, but as Ether options stand at $450 million, any number below $1.5 billion would certainly not look desirable for Bitcoin.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-volatility-expected-as-47-of-btc-options-expire-next-friday

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Chainlink Price Crosses Above $12.5 and Reclaims Lost Support

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Chainlink, one of the lucrative projects amongst the top 10 coins of the global crypto market, is seen pulling back just like any other altcoin of the market, including the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization—Bitcoin. The entire crypto market is seen losing the winning streak, including the top 10 except Tether—the global crypto market’s stable coin. 

Chainlink trading right after Bitcoin Cash on the 6th position is seen shedding its two-day gains as the price experiences a steep dip at $11.2. Alongside, the Chainlink platform gained all the limelight in the past quarter when it hit an all-time high, a Dollar below $20, around $19.85. 

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Over the past three years, Chainlink traded like completely void crypto, unable to draw user’s attention until the current year’s collaborations and integrations could manage to lure investors and networkers for one of the most lucrative cryptos and platforms now. 

Chainlink’s Price Feed a Noteworthy Transition 

Alongside, one of the most noteworthy transitions of the platform that is hired by many other networks is Chainlink’s Price Feeds. Many different platforms leverage the price feed facility from Chainlink at three aggregation levels, i.e., the data provider level, node operator level, and the network level. 

This smart contract platform is worth the hype its native coin LINK attracted in the 3rd quarter when it spurred as high as $19.85, while currently trading at $12.77.

Chainlink Price Analysis

Chainlink News
LINK/USD Chart By TradingView

Today, at the press time, Chainlink price was spotted below $15 at $12.7 after drawing a notable uptrend but failed to keep up due to loss of momentum and a steep correction in the past two days to test lows at $11.2. LINK/USD when declined below $12, tested 50-day daily support, and declined even below; however, the coin regained the lost support at $12.09, as it spiked above $12.5 at the time of writing. 

With the current strengthening in price, Chainlink reclaimed both the MAs’ support on the daily chart. Alongside, it was two days back when the bearish candlewick almost breached the lower 20-day Bollinger Band on the daily chart with a steep correction after a gaining spree. 

However, the recent bullish candlewick formed led to regaining the lost traction but is continuing to draw a bearish crossover as the signal line crosses above the MACD line. The RSI is seen plummeting from the overbought region after the LINK price decline on the daily chart, lies at 48.02.

Source: https://www.cryptonewsz.com/chainlink-price-crosses-above-dollar-12-5-and-reclaims-lost-support/

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Facebook’s Libra to Launch Dollar-Pegged Stablecoin in January

Facebook’s Libra digital currency project may finally hit the ground running in January 2021 with the launch of a dollar-pegged stablecoin. The single digital currency pegged to the dollar is a far cry from the ambitious plans first introduced back in 2019. Pushback from major financial regulators around the globe has likely caused the project … Continued

The post Facebook’s Libra to Launch Dollar-Pegged Stablecoin in January appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Facebook’s Libra digital currency project may finally hit the ground running in January 2021 with the launch of a dollar-pegged stablecoin.

The single digital currency pegged to the dollar is a far cry from the ambitious plans first introduced back in 2019.

Pushback from major financial regulators around the globe has likely caused the project to be downgraded significantly even as several nations pursue central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in response to private stablecoins like Libra.

Libra booking holdings

Limited Libra Stablecoin Roll-out Coming Early 2021

According to a report by the Financial Times (FT) on Nov. 27, Libra is working on modalities to introduce a digital currency specie in early 2021. Inside sources at the company say the Facebook-led project plans to roll-out a dollar-pegged stablecoin in January.

The proposed launch will depend on approvals from Switzerland’s Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). Libra previously applied for a payments license from the Swiss regulator back in September 2019.

Launching a single stablecoin appears to be another downgrade of the project. When first announced, the Libra digital currency system was to be a token backed by a basket of national fiat currencies.

Financial regulators, especially those in Europe railed against the idea. At the time, most opponents of the plan said Libra could jeopardize sovereign monetary policy control mechanisms across the world.

As previously reported by BeInCrypto, Libra has since made wholesale changes to the project. Back in June, the Libra Association published an updated white paper detailing that it would deploy multiple fiat currency-backed stablecoins.

According to FT sources, the other planned stablecoins in the Libra digital currency catalog will come at a later time.

Libra

A Change of Plans

In May, Facebook renamed the Calibra wallet to Novi. The Novi wallet will allow users to hold and spend Libra stablecoins.

Reports suggest the Novi wallet is ready for use but the plan is to stage a limited roll-out of the service across six high-volume remittance corridors including the U.S. and some countries in South America.

Facebook is also reportedly waiting on licensing approval from 10 state regulators in the U.S. including a BitLicense from New York.

While Libra moves closer to its launch date, many countries are experimenting with CBDCs. Major financial institutions like the Bank for Internation Settlements (BIS) are also proposing more robust regulations for private stablecoin projects.

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Osato is a reporter at BeInCrypto and Bitcoin believer based in Lagos, Nigeria. When not immersed in the daily happenings in the crypto scene, he can be found watching historical documentaries or trying to beat his Scrabble high score.

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Source: https://beincrypto.com/facebooks-libra-to-launch-dollar-pegged-stablecoin-in-january/

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Acala: DeFi Hub & Stablecoin Platform for Cross-Chain Liquidity & Apps

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Acala is a DeFi platform that supports cross-chain operability through its stable coin aUSD.

During the summer of 2020, the introduction of the COMP token sparked the decentralized finance (DeFi) race with millions of investors pitching into either benefit from yield farming or just being able to take a loan using cryptos.

After COMP, many tokens tried to mimic the success of COMP and jump off the DeFi bandwagon, many succeeded while many failed to catch up. With the majority of tokens operating upon their specialized blockchain, many shortcomings were apparent.

A new blockchain made by an up-and-coming firm could handle so many transactions per-minute until traffic starts to pile up, creating bottle-necks, delayed transactions, and increased transactional fees. This happened over and over again, and even ETH gas prices hit record levels.

As an integrated multichain protocol, like Polkadot, Acala can trade information with other blockchains in the DeFi ecosystem. This allows for Acala to implement bridges to the Bitcoin blockchain, enhances transactional speed and overall efficiency across many chains so that costs are also low.

Acala: The Founders

Acala’s integration into Polkadot was not coincidental, as there are still other multichain protocols out there, but Polkadot is the chain of choice. This is the culmination of years of experience, trust, security, and synergy between the Polkadot eco-system teams, Laminar, Polkawallet, and direct support from Polkadot’s founder.

The team consisted of three brilliant minds, Bryan Chen who had the opportunity to work closely with Dr. Gavin Wood, the founder of Polkadot, Fuyao Jiang the founder of Polkawallet, and Ruitao Su founder of Laminar. They met in Hangzhou, China in 2019, they soon began the development of Acala.

Acala was spearheaded after the project received a large grant by the Web3 Foundation, also run by Gavin Wood, giving the team the much needed monetary and technical support from Polkadot. The grant was used to develop the Acala’s stable coin, which is now known as aUSD.

Acala Network
Acala Network

Stablecoin: Acala Dollar

One of the main selling points of Acala is its stablecoin, Acala Dollar or aUSD.

Unlike 99% of stablecoins in the market that are backed by fiat which could cause a few restrictions such as the ability to be censorship-resistant, go permissionless, and be trustless.

Acala Dollar is backed by different valuable cryptos such as Bitcoin, Ether, and so on, and that allows it to retain its decentralization.

The Acala Dollar prides itself on its ability to be used and transferred freely throughout the Polkadot multichain ecosystem which means any token within the protocol could be turned into Acala Dollar.

With a system-wide presence, the aUSD should be a boon to liquidity in the DeFi ecosystem.

The DeFi hub of Polkadot

The meat of Acala consists of two protocols, Honzon and Homa. These are the core functions that make up the Acala system.

The Honzon protocol is where interoperability comes into play, users could create Acala Dollar by creating a collateralized debt position (CDPs) and they could use any token within the protocol to deposit.

CDPs could also facilitate loans in Acala Dollar and again, could be used in any network that is on the protocol.

As for Homa, it powers the liquid staking feature within Acala, it lets users stake the DOT token and receive the liquid DOT or L-DOT which could be used to generate more Acala Dollars or to easily transfer and trade across the Polkadot platform.

What is Acala?
What is Acala?

Your Turn to Take Control

As a truly decentralized platform, power is given to the investors.

The existence of Acala’s native token or ACA is not without a purpose. It could be used as a regular token on a blockchain, to settle fees, trade, so on and so forth. But what makes ACA special is that it gives users voting rights and the power to have a voice on important protocol decisions.

Karura on Kusama

Kusama is essentially a similar version of Polkadot with virtually the same code. From an outside perspective, Kusama may seem as if it is a test-net for Polkadot, but it’s fully-fledged features and the community may say otherwise.

Kusama usually gets the newest features to experiment with, and if it works, it will be implemented onto Polkadot.

With Polkadot receiving Acala as its DeFi hub, it is only fair that the Kusama community deserves the same, and Karura is the answer. As previously stated, Karura will be exactly like Acala code by code.

Karura will also enjoy staking liquidity, where users could stake the native token KSM to receive liquid KSM or L-KSM and is capable of performing any DeFi function similar to L-DOT.

Kusama
Polkadot Team Announces Kusama “Canary Network” for Experiments

Users on Kusama could also enjoy cross-chain liquidity by bridging, therefore removing any additional ETH in fees associated with wrapped tokens but rather, use the token on hand to settle those fees.

Aside from Karura being capable of performing basic DeFi applications such as making a loan, trading on the decentralized exchange, and earnings from yielding, it is also an open governance platform where the community will vote upon future changes of the network.

For now, Polkadot and Kusama will be operating side by side with each other and so will Acala and Karura respectively. The future of the platform is for the two systems to interact with each other and become interoperable with one another.

What is a PLO?

PLO, or Parachain Lease Offering in simple terms is a way for the Polkadot network to lease a Parachain in their ecosystem, a parachain will most often be developed as a blockchain.

As there are limited amounts of parachain in a protocol, these leases will allow developers to bid for a chance to lease a spot and let the market demand determine what price it should be for a leasing period of two years.

After integration with Acala, Karura will then host its PLO which is scheduled to happen in Q4 of 2020. This will be very exciting for developers who are interested in the Polkadot and Kusama protocols as Kusama encourages risk-takers and “enabling rapid progress and growth”.

So if your startup wishes to move and grow fast, this could be the place for you.

More to Come!

As of the time of writing, Acala has already laid out its plans for 2021 with more exciting features such as the inclusion of a Council Governance, enabling cross-chain asset Bitcoin, which could happen during Q1, full EVM and smart contract support, support for more cross-chain assets for Q2 and for Q3, enabling liquid democracy.

Acala is Well Designed and Has Support

Though investors around the world had all encountered hardship during the dreaded year of 2020, it is undeniable that it is the most exciting year for the Polkadot ecosystem. With Acala being the leader of decentralized finance, investors on the protocol now have more opportunity to somewhat make back what they have lost during the pandemic.

Better yet, it has also been an exceptional year for the Kusama community. With the introduction with Karura, hand in hand with Acala, the future for this family of blockchain in 2021 will not only be filled with opportunities for developers but also filled with profitability to investors as well.

If you want to learn more about the Acala ecosystem, or any of its features, just click here for more information!

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Source: https://blockonomi.com/acala-guide/

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