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Market Outlook: BTC Trend Targets $15K, Bitcoin Bull Raoul Pal ‘Irresponsibly Long’

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Blockchain

Bitcoin Recovery Runs Into Crucial Resistance, But 100 SMA Holds The Key

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Bitcoin price started a decent recovery from the $10,139 swing low against the US Dollar. BTC gained pace above the $10,550 resistance, but it is facing a major hurdle near $10,800.

  • Bitcoin managed to stay above the $10,000 support and started a decent recovery.
  • The price is now trading above the $10,550 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $10,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair is currently facing a strong resistance near the $10,800 level (the previous support).

Bitcoin Price is Gaining Traction

After trading as low as $10,139, bitcoin price started a decent recovery against the US Dollar. BTC broke a few important hurdles near $10,400 and $10,550 to move into a short-term positive zone.

The recovery was such that the price settled above the $10,550 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $10,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin is now testing the next key resistance near the $10,800 level. A high is formed near $10,789 and the price is consolidating gains. An initial support on the downside is near the $10,640 level or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $10,139 low to $10,789 high.

Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin price breaks $10,550. Source: TradingView.com

The next major support is near the $10,550 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $10,139 low to $10,789 high is also near $10,464 to act as a support.

On the upside, the bulls are facing a huge task near the $10,800 level. If they manage to clear the $10,800 resistance, the price is likely to accelerate higher towards the $11,000 and $11,200 levels.

Is This Just a Recovery in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to continue higher above $10,780 and $10,800, it could start a fresh decline. The first major support is seen near the $10,550 level and the 100 hourly SMA.

A downside break below the 100 hourly SMA might put the bulls on the back foot. In the stated case, the price could trim gains and dive back towards the $10,200 support.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing steam in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is correcting lower and it is above the 60 level.

Major Support Levels – $10,640, followed by $10,550.

Major Resistance Levels – $10,780, $10,800 and $11,000.

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/09/25/bitcoin-recovery-runs-into-crucial-resistance/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=bitcoin-recovery-runs-into-crucial-resistance

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Report Questions Uniswap Token Distribution to Team, Investors

Glassnode says Uniswap isn’t being fully transparent about its token vesting process for team members and investors.

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In brief

  • A report from Glassnode Insights today says the storage method of UNI tokens essentially gives Uniswap admin rights over the platform.
  • The report presumes Uniswap is acting in good faith as it seeks to gradually decentralize real governance.
  • It urges Uniswap to provide details about the vesting schedule for its UNI governance token.

In a report published today, market analysis firm Glassnode chided Uniswap for not being more transparent about elements of its token protocol and suggested it may be deviating from its promise to vest tokens set aside for the Uniswap team and investors.

When Uniswap, the decentralized exchange for Ethereum-based ERC20 tokens, unveiled its UNI governance token on September 16, it said tokens distributed to team members and investors would vest over four years. But those tokens currently appear to be sitting in standard Ethereum addresses, where they can be used by anyone who controls the key.

According to the report, “This method of storing the tokens gives the Uniswap team and investors what essentially amounts to admin rights over the protocol.”

Though it assumes Uniswap is acting in good faith, either to transition to decentralized governance over time or to repel attacks from centralized exchanges, Glassnode wants to know: Who controls the keys and why are the tokens not locked in a smart contract?

(Decrypt has reached out to Uniswap and its creator, Hayden Adams, for comment.)

In its UNI announcement, Uniswap stated that 1 billion UNI had been minted and would become accessible over four years. While the bulk (600 million) were set aside for Uniswap community members, just over 215 million were reserved for current and future employees, and 178 million were earmarked for investors. Advisors were to receive just under 6.9 million tokens.

UNI tokens are supposed to be vested over the course of four years. That means team members and investors wouldn’t be able to access all of their tokens until the four years expire. But as Glassnode notes, vesting details are hazy.

You might be asking: So what? Whether Uniswap gets them in batches over four years or has them all now, same difference, right?

There are two main reasons timing is an important detail.

The first is price. UNI tokens are currently selling for over $5 a pop. If someone were to dump millions of them on the open market, the price of the coin could collapse. Of course, there’s no indication Uniswap would come all this way to create a usable product just to cash out and blow it up. But that’s essentially what the creator of its much younger clone, SushiSwap, did before repenting.

Even without a massive rug pull, selling tokens can affect price, at least in the short term. In the past, Ripple, the main holder of XRP, has been taken to task for selling large volumes of the cryptocurrency on the market. Former Ripple founder Jed McCaleb, who owned 9 billion XRP, was once selling off about 500,000 XRP each day. 

All of which make it important for community members to know more about the vesting process.

Second, UNI’s primary purpose isn’t to stuff wallets; it’s a governance token. Those who possess it control the network, just like shareholders vote on a company’s direction. But as with company shares, you need a certain amount of tokens in order to be truly relevant. At the moment, just to submit a governance proposal, a user needs to haveor have delegated to themat least 10 million tokens. That benefits holders that can vote as a team, such as Uniswap.

Moreover, token holders make real financial decisions. They have control over the governance treasury, which is currently stocked with 430 million UNI. Those funds, locked by smart contract, begin being distributed in October. Forty percent of the supply is released in year one, then 30% in year two, and so on until it’s empty. How the funds are used, however, is determined by vote.

Glassnode’s report reads: “Even if we assume that the team and investors will not use tokens that have not vested, Uniswap’s team and VC investors will have a disproportionate amount of power in the early stages of governance.”

Ryan Watkins, a researcher with Messari, says that’s intentional. “It allows the team to still play a significant role in governance while the project is still young,” he told Decrypt.

But that’s something the Uniswap team says it won’t do…at least, kinda. Its September 16 UNI announcement states, “Team members will not participate directly in governance for the foreseeable future, although they may delegate votes to protocol delegates without seeking to influence their voting decisions.”

As the Glassnode report notes, “While the seemingly unattainable 1% proposal threshold may seem like a power grab on the part of the Uniswap team, it is more likely that this model was implemented with benevolent intent, in order to protect the protocol from radical changes in the early stages of its transition to decentralized governanceeven at the cost of community disenfranchisement.”

And enfranchisement is really what’s at stake here. Who’s controlling the decentralized exchange? At the moment, it appears, it’s still the people who created it.

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Blockchain

Kraken Daily Market Report for September 24 2020

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Overview


  • Total trading volume at $237.5 million, as Bitcoin and other coins correct for yesterday’s losses and trended positively all day.
  • Very good returns across the board. LINK +29%, SNX +25%, and BAL +18%. Several cryptos had over 10% returns, and only DAI (a stable coin) posted margin losses.
  • Trading volume surged around 05:00, 10:00 and 15:00 UTC; however, none of these surges occurred around major price swings.

September 24, 2020 
 $237.5M traded across all markets today
 Crypto, EUR, USD, JPY, CAD, GBP, CHF, AUD 
XBT 
$10731. 
↑4.9% 
$113.9M
ETH 
$348.95 
↑8.9% 
$49.9M
USDT 
$1.0001 
↑0.07% 
$24.0M
LINK 
$9.8494 
↑29% 
$23.4M
DOT 
$4.3905 
↑9.4% 
$5.66M
XRP 
$0.2328 
↑5.2% 
$4.3M
USDC 
$1.0001 
↑0.0% 
$3.59M
XTZ 
$2.1528 
↑10% 
$3.17M
LTC 
$44.929 
↑4.6% 
$1.95M
BCH 
$216.25 
↑4.1% 
$1.55M
OXT 
$0.3025 
↑15% 
$1.16M
ETC 
$5.7974 
↑0.9% 
$1.16M
ADA 
$0.0826 
↑7.8% 
$1.1M
XMR 
$91.977 
↑5.6% 
$1.09M
SNX 
$4.625 
↑25% 
$1.08M
OMG 
$3.1119 
↑13% 
$975K
ATOM 
$4.4801 
↑17% 
$889K
EOS 
$2.5345 
↑3.9% 
$704K
ALGO 
$0.2943 
↑9.4% 
$700K
DAI 
$1.0110 
↓0.02% 
$648K
KAVA 
$1.9908 
↑4.5% 
$647K
TRX 
$0.0262 
↑5.8% 
$537K
PAXG 
$1879.1 
↑1.0% 
$515K
XLM 
$0.0704 
↑4.5% 
$459K
WAVES 
$2.3659 
↑9.1% 
$380K
ZEC 
$55.184 
↑6.5% 
$368K
MLN 
$32.272 
↑15% 
$327K
COMP 
$138.60 
↑8.9% 
$327K
XDG 
$0.0026 
↑3.3% 
$270K
REP 
$14.323 
↑10% 
$263K
ICX 
$0.4135 
↑12% 
$236K
BAT 
$0.2260 
↑6.1% 
$235K
QTUM 
$2.3184 
↑6.7% 
$209K
KNC 
$0.9387 
↑9.3% 
$186K
KSM 
$36.864 
↑11% 
$161K
SC 
$0.0026 
↑6.0% 
$148K
GNO 
$41.569 
↑9.0% 
$147K
DASH 
$67.884 
↑4.8% 
$140K
NANO 
$0.7512 
↑11% 
$127K
CRV 
$0.9915 
↑12% 
$124K
LSK 
$1.2075 
↑7.3% 
$84.0K
BAL 
$15.420 
↑18% 
$70.9K
STORJ 
$0.3379 
↑11% 
$58.2K
REPV2 
$14.349 
↑13% 
$42.0K



#####################. Trading Volume by Asset. ##########################################

Trading Volume by Asset


The figures below break down the trading volume of the largest, mid-size, and smallest assets. Cryptos are in purple, fiats are in blue. For each asset, the chart contains the daily trading volume in USD, and the percentage of the total trading volume. The percentages for fiats and cryptos are treated separately, so that they both add up to 100%.

Figure 1: Largest trading assets: trading volume (measured in USD) and its percentage of the total trading volume (September 24 2020)



Figure 2: Mid-size trading assets: (measured in USD) (September 24 2020)



Figure 3: Smallest trading assets: (measured in USD) (September 24 2020)



#####################. Spread %. ##########################################

Spread %


Spread percentage is the width of the bid/ask spread divided by the bid/ask midpoint. The values are generated by taking the median spread percentage over each minute, then the average of the medians over the day.

Figure 4: Average spread % by pair (September 24 2020)



.


#########. Returns and Volume ############################################

Returns and Volume


Figure 5: Returns of the four highest volume pairs (September 24 2020)


Figure 6: Volume of the major currencies and an average line that fits the data to a sinusoidal curve to show the daily volume highs and lows (September 24 2020)



###########. Daily Returns. #################################################

Daily Returns %


Figure 7: Returns over USD and XBT. Relative volume and return size is indicated by the size of the font. (September 24 2020)



###########. Disclaimer #################################################

The values generated in this report are from public market data distributed from Kraken WebSockets api. The total volumes and returns are calculated over the reporting day using UTC time.

Source: https://blog.kraken.com/post/6433/kraken-daily-market-report-for-september-24-2020/

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