- Bitcoin (BTC) has once again reclaimed $9,000 with 5 days until halving.
- Pantera Capital’s CEO, Dan Morehead, sees a scenario where BTC hits $115,212 by August 2021.
- His analysis is based on the change in the stock-to-flow ratio across each halving.
The hype and excitement surrounding the Bitcoin halving event is once again evident in the current price of BTC. At the time of writing this, Bitcoin has just broken both the $9,000 and $9,100 resistance levels and is trading at $9,261 with 5 days until halving. A brief analysis of the BTC/USDT 6-hour chart reveals that there is renewed buying interest as we draw closer to the estimated halving date of May 12th.
Pantera Capital CEO Predicts Bitcoin (BTC) Could Hit $115k After Halving
With the Bitcoin halving only days away, Pantera Capital CEO, Dan Morehead, has predicted that BTC could hit $115,212 by August of 2021. His analysis is based on the change in the stock-to-flow ratio across each halving. Mr. Morehead made this predication via twitter and further elaborated on his analysis via an informative Medium blog post. His tweet can be found below.
#bitcoin could hit $115,212 in Aug 2021 based on the change in the stock-to-flow ratio across each halving.
— Dan Morehead (@dan_pantera) May 5, 2020
One potential framework for analyzing the impact of halvings is to study the change in the stock-to-flow ratio across each halving. The first halving reduced the supply by 15% of the total outstanding bitcoins. That’s a huge impact on supply and it had a huge impact on price.
Each subsequent halving’s impact on price will likely taper off in importance as the ratio of reduction in supply from previous halvings to the next decreases.
Furthermore, his analysis went on to elaborate on the impact each halving has had on the price of Bitcoin.
The second having decreased supply only one-third as much as the first. Very interestingly, it had exactly one-third the price impact.
Extrapolating this relationship to 2020:
The reduction in supply is only 40% as great as in 2016. If this relationship holds, that would imply about 40% as much price impulse — bitcoin would peak at $115,212 /BTC.
What is Stock-to-Flow Ratio?
The Stock-to-flow ratio is a measure traditionally used to gauge the abundance of commodities. It is calculated by dividing the amount of a commodity held in inventories, by the amount being produced annually.
In the case of Bitcoin, it is calculated by dividing the currently known supply of Bitcoin by the BTC mined annually. At the time of writing this, there is approximately 18.365 Bitcoin already mined with an annual production of 657,000 BTC per year. This results in a Stock-to-flow ratio of 27.9.
(Feature image courtesy of Unsplash.)
Disclaimer: This article is not meant to give financial advice. Any additional opinion herein is purely the author’s and does not represent the opinion of Ethereum World News or any of its other writers. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the numerous cryptocurrencies available. Thank you.
XRP Entered Key Accumulation Zone, Eyeing A Move Towards $0.28
XRP entered key accumulation zone as the price was in a lackluster action as of late with both sellers and buyers being unable to garner clear control over the near-term trend, hovering around $0.20 as we are reading more in the latest Ripple price news.
The consolidation came about as a result of the Bitcoin movement since it was struggling to gain any clear momentum as the price oscillates between the low region of $10,200 and the higher of $11,200. Because XRP entered key accumulation zone moving closely with BTC and the rest of the market, where it will head next will depend largely on whether the entire market will recapture the bullish momentum. With that being said, one analyst noted that the cryptocurrency is consolidating above the long-term base of support and says that this support will ultimately provide another major boost and will allow the price to start rallying towards $0.28 next.
If the XRP price moves to $0.28, it will mark a 20% climb from where it is trading now. at the time of writing, XRP is trading up over 3% at a current price of $0.24 which is around the same price level where it was trading over the past few days. The price dropped as low as $0.22 before it was able to find any major support with the bulls stepping up and making gains on the strong uptrend where this level was reached.
Bitcoin helped in the rebound as the benchmark cryptocurrency pushed from $10,200 to highs of $10,800 created a tailwind which lifted most of the assets higher. In order for XRP to continue ascending in the near-term, the bulls will have to continue defending against further losses. While speaking about where he expects XRP To go further, one analyst explained that the recent reaction to $0.22 shows how strong the base of support is for this cryptocurrency:
“XRP: The market is overly bearish, but the markets are actually on impressive support zones to accumulate some positions. Similar to XRP. Patience pays. Looking at some longs here, which could be towards $0.28 first in the next month.”
How altcoins such as XRP will trend in the upcoming weeks will depend on Bitcoin. The number one cryptocurrency has to be able to see sustained momentum if it reaches the $11,000 resistance.
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Bitcoin price recovers, resistance at $11,000
The Bitcoin price is on a recovery path after bouncing off from a support zone. The immediate resistance is at $11,000 but $12,500 of Sep 2020 highs is ideal.
- The Bitcoin price recovers, resistance at $11,000
- Russia proposes a bill which categorizes Bitcoin and crypto as property
- Binance banned in Russia
- A bill in Israel may see Bitcoin and crypto classified as currencies
The Bitcoin price is bouncing back, snapping back to trend, reversing blips of early this week. From trackers, the BTC/USD pair has pared losses but is galloping ahead of ETH.
Crypto as Currency?
Amid optimism is news from Israel.
According to a local report, four members from Knesset–Israel’s legislative body, submitted a bill on Sep 22. If adopted, the rule will significantly change the way cryptocurrencies are taxed.
Specifically, the bill seeks to change digital assets’ classification from property to currency under the country’s Income Tax Ordinance.
This shall lift the taxation burden of coin holders who currently pay 25 percent as tax on capital gains. Should Bitcoin (and cryptocurrencies) be deemed as currencies, capital gains will drop to 15 percent.
The State of Israel can be among the leaders in the field of digital currencies. If only it recognizes the use of the blockchain as a currency for everything. It is precisely in this period when the economic future is unclear It is possible to promote digital payment options due to the social distance that has been forced on us.
Russia’s Strict Proposal
In Russia, a radical proposal by the Ministry of Finance was tabled to the State Duma—the parliament, on Sep 24. Controversial, the Ministry of Finance astonishingly considers cryptocurrencies as tools of money laundering and terrorist financing.
Consequently, it proposes holders to submit any holding above $1,300 or (100K Rubles) to tax authorities.
Failure attracts a jail term of up to three years. The softer option will be forced labor as punishment. The only good news this proposal bears is the classification of Bitcoin and crypto as property.
However, this is to pave ways for tax authorities who can proceed to charge capital gains.
On the same day, Binance—the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, was banned by the Roskomnadzor.
Baffling, the agency says the site’s homepage promotes the buying and selling of Bitcoin. It is the second time in three months the agency is blacklisting Binance.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
The Bitcoin price is swinging between bearish and neutral judging from candlestick arrangements and technical indicators.
In the last day of trading, BTC has recovered losses against the USD and is flat. However, it is outperforming ETH in the daily and weekly charts.
Candlestick arrangements in the daily chart suggest strength in the immediate term.
There is a double bar bullish reversal pattern from the 61.8 and 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level of July to September trade range.
Since prices are back above the middle BB, bulls are likely to edge higher in the immediate term.
Strong liquidation levels is expected at $11,200 and $11,500. This is Sep 3 highs. A sharp, high-volume break above this level will nullify bearish attempts of Sep 1 and 2 and probably paves the way for bulls to retest $12,500.
BTC/USD Technical Indicators
- Support lies between $10,100 and $10,400
- Resistance is at $11,000 and $11,500.
- Most traders (88 percent) are bullish from sentiment analysis.
Disclaimer. The information provided is not a trading advice. Cryptopolitan.com holds no liability for any investments made based on the information provided on this page. We strongly recommend independent research and/or consultation with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.
Another record-breaking WBTC mint – Bitcoin demand on Ethereum to grow?
On 25 September, crypto-trading firm Alameda Research minted the largest-ever quantity of Wrapped Bitcoin [WBTC]. News of the development was shared on Twitter by WBTC, with the tweet going on to note that the mint was worth 2,317 BTC, equivalent to $25 million.
In fact, Alameda Research beat the previous record set by Singapore-based Three Arrows Capital. Interestingly, Three Arrows Capital completed the single largest issuance of new WBTC tokens by any merchant after minting 2,316 WBTC on 24 September through Bitgo.
Before Three Arrows, Alameda Research had set the previous record with most tokens issues in a single mint. As it reclaimed its throne, Sam Bankman-Fried, Founder of Alameda Research, challenged the CEO of Three Arrows Capital to keep the friendly competition going.
— SBF (@SBF_Alameda) September 25, 2020
Despite the back and forth, Alameda Research has been leading the mint and issuance of WBTC with 37,609 tokens. On the contrary, others like CoinList and imToken followed with 28,162 and 8,991 WBTC, respectively.
Bitcoin’s demand on DeFi has been growing, including other platforms. According to data provided by Dune Analytics, the supply of WBTC has shot up by over 13,000% since January and has remained the most significant among other synthetic forms of BTC. As per Arcane Research, WBTC saw the most BTC locked, holding 67% of the total amount of Bitcoin represented on the Ethereum blockchain. RenBTC followed at the second position, with about 24% market share and HBTC with about 4%.
Bitcoin accounts for almost 5% of the TVL in DeFi now, indicating a rise in the share of DeFi capitalization represented by BTC which itself has risen by 150% in the past three and a half months.
At press time, DeFi Pulse was reporting the total BTC locked in DeFi to be at 125k. This was after the slump witnessed on 21 September, a slump that took the value of BTC down, along with the BTC locked in DeFi. The value on Monday had dipped to 82.16k, but quickly jumped back and, at the time of writing, was noting a peak.
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