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Polymarket reveals change in sentiment around ETH 2.0 Genesis event

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One of the most hotly debated topics in crypto of late has been the question of whether the Ethereum 2.0 Genesis event will take place successfully on 1 December.

The target for Ethereum 2.0’s on-time launch is set at 524,288 ETH. As of last week, only 20% of the target had been achieved. However, at the time of writing, 54.67% of the target had been met, with over 287K ETH sent to the ETH 2.0 deposit contract.

The fact that over half of the target has been met so quickly is astonishing to many, especially since many were skeptical about the target being reached by the deadline. However, that sentiment is changing now, as seen by the shift in odds on Polymarket.

Source: Polymarket

Only a few days ago, the charts on Polymarket pointed to a 72% chance that the Deposit contract will not be filled in time. At the time of writing, however, the charts were 61% skewed in favor of the Genesis event happening on time, with the Deposit contract well filled.

In fact, the said crossover happened on 21 November, around the time when over 87,000 ETH were sent to the deposit contract by 2733 unique addresses.

Source: Dune Analytics

According to data from Dune Analytics, this was the largest amount sent to the deposit contract in a single day since its launch.

While many are optimistic about the premise of ETH 2.0 and its decentralized nature, the deposits over the past few days alone are indicative of the number of people holding ETH in such volumes across the ecosystem.

It is indeed an expensive time for the average retail investor as ETH, at the time of writing, was up by over 9% in 24 hours, with the same trading at $591 on the price charts.

Source: Dune Analytics

Finally, data that examined the average transaction count v. deposit value also seemed to suggest that at present, whales are responsible for a majority of the deposits in the ETH 2.0 deposit contract.

Source: https://eng.ambcrypto.com/polymarket-reveals-change-in-sentiment-around-eth-2-0-genesis-event

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The Sudden, Unexpected End of Crypto Tribalism

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“The lower the stakes, the more intense the dispute.” 

Sayre’s Law

The Narcissism Of Small Differences

Bitcoin and the crypto world have enjoyed a phenomenal decade. Despite the fact that Bitcoin is perhaps the most disruptive technology to the status quo since the printing press, the powers-that-be have mostly left us alone. Sure, exchanges have been obliged to perform KYC measures, there’ve been a few darkmarket arrests, China banned Bitcoin a few times and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission went after some ICOs. But these regulatory responses are the bare minimum, the same regulations are applied to the very scary antiques market. 

For a decade, we have been left largely to our own devices while enjoying the unprecedented luxury of a growth rate that has averaged thousands percent. To be extremely successful, all you had to do was buy some bitcoin and then do nothing. In fact, you didn’t even need to do that, you could have chosen the cryptocurrency you were going to buy by throwing darts while drunk and blindfolded and you still would have seemed like a genius for buying XRP. 

So, we did what people always do when they are free from any real troubles — we turned on each other. Bitcoin hated Ethereum. BCH hated Bitcoin. Monero hated Zcash. And everyone hated Ripple. We whiled away the hours of our idyllic age of innocence, by going to Twitter and telling people to “have fun staying poor… idiot.” It felt important. 

Undoubtedly there are important differences between Bitcoin and, say, Ethereum. There might also be a very real sense in which they are competing with each other. While we had no problems more important to attend to, the rivalry, and its intensity, perhaps made sense. 

End Of Innocence

This tribalism is soon going to come to a very sudden end. Bitcoin and crypto have become too big to ignore. Leviathan is stirring. Even in the minds of the most unimaginative of bureaucrats, the realization is starting to dawn: “This is not a toy, this is not some millennial fad. This is our control over the monetary and financial system that these kids are coming after…”

Monero is being delisted from exchanges. An Ethereum Core dev and the BitMEX CTO have been arrested. The Travel Rule is being adjusted special, just for us. In the U.S., in Europe, in Israel and soon everywhere, you must disclose your crypto holdings, not just when you sell but always. 

“First they laugh at you, then they ignore you, then they fight you…” 

Congratulations everyone, they are getting ready to fight us. No pretendsies anymore. This fight will be for keeps. Are you ready? They say you can’t fight City Hall. Well, how about fighting a global coalition of nations with nuclear weapons and interpol at its disposal that can make the financial rules up as they go along? 

We are going to need every ally we can get, even if they are an imperfect shitcoiner. 

New Battle Lines

It’s actually even worse than that. Those closest to us are going to be the ones to turn the knife. For a decade, we have been entrusting our funds to exchanges and relying on them as our on- and offramps. We have also been praying that this would be the “year the institutions come.” Well, the exchanges have built huge businesses that they now need to protect. They have shareholders to whom they must answer. They have precious regulatory licences that were expensive to acquire and are easy to lose. 

Coinbase is going to conduct an IPO. Kraken has become a bank. Banks were an invention of the free market. They have been co-opted into a quasi-arm of the government and have become the primary enforcers of the financial surveillance state. How long before Kraken has its tentacles in your finances, operating under instructions from the regulator? How long before we  begin to see all those institutions we summoned digest crypto companies in an orgy of M&A?

If you imagined that institutions getting interested in Bitcoin meant that they would begin to lobby on our behalf, you were mistaken. They will lobby on behalf of their own interests: to be mandatory middlemen, who must approve your every transaction and who take a cut for the trouble. The exchanges that served us so well over all of these years, who offered us great convenience in exchange for the mere trifle of controlling our keys — these exchanges run by Bitcoin OGs — they are no longer our friends. The age of innocence is over. 

See Also

Conviction that Bitcoin and an honest monetary system are fundamental to freedom can inspire cooperation between unlikely partners.

Together, We Shall Overcome

Nothing unites a community like a common foe. As large as the perceived differences between the different crypto tribes might be, they pale in comparison to the gulf between us and the nocoiners. Right now, we live in a nocoiner world. A fiat world of central authorities, financial surveillance and crony capitalism. The nocoiners have the power by default. We must choose to either unite, or allow them to succeed through a strategy of divide and conquer. 

The great underdog success stories have always required the revolutionaries to put aside their differences and unite. The squabbling Greeks came together to defeat the Persians and defend their democracy. The competing houses of England paused their fighting and forced King John to sign the Magna Carta. The States of America forgot their ideological and religious differences, defeated the Red Coats and won their independence.

This hour calls for us to unite. While I am sure we will struggle to do so, I am confident that as the battle lines become clear, we will rise to the occasion and focus on the mission we have in common. This is why I am excited to see projects like Sovryn and TBTC; mission-driven projects, true to our trustless values, bringing together the worlds of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The higher stakes, the more intense the need for unity. 

At the Hot Gates, the Spartans were outflanked and massacred. At Marathon, however, they stood shoulder to shoulder with their arch-enemy, the Athenians. That day, free men won a victory for liberty that we benefit from to this day. Even the Spartans couldn’t HODL alone.

This is a guest post by Edan Yago. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/the-sudden-unexpected-end-of-crypto-tribalism?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-sudden-unexpected-end-of-crypto-tribalism

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Optimism ‘Soft Launches’ Ethereum Throughput Solution With DeFi’s Synthetix

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Optimism has “soft launched” its solution to Ethereum’s transaction problem, the Optimistic Virtual Machine (OVM).

The startup announced Friday that OVM is now live, at a time when gas fees have reached near all-time highs for decentralized finance (DeFi) traders. Indeed, the cost to send a single Ethereum transaction has hovered in the low single-digit dollars for the last month – a bit steep for the “internet of money.”

First on the docket is DeFi exchange Synthetix, which has been working on an integration for some weeks now. The platform allows traders to exchange Ethereum-based synthetic contracts of real-world assets including oil futures.

The transition will roll out in four phases to limit risk to the platform, Synthetix co-founder Kain Warwick wrote in a Jan. 14 blog post. Staking the platform’s native token, SNX, is now possible on OVM, the team said.

“We have opted for initiating the transition with the absolute minimum risk to [layer one], and then adding functionality over the course of the next few months as we build confidence in [Optimistic Ethereum],” Warwick wrote.

Optimism, formerly known as Plasma Group, has pioneered one implementation of what are known as Optimistic Rollups (ORs). ORs – or other rollup variants such as ZK-Rollups – are layer two solutions that act as throughput boosters for blockchains. (These are not dissimilar in a general sense from Bitcoin’s Lightning Network.)

A rollup allows a blockchain to settle more transactions across the whole network by sending transactions off-chain, validating them and then settling the lump value on the main Ethereum blockchain. Most dapps have a rollup solution on the agenda.

In conjunction with other technical solutions, the expectation is Ethereum will be able to execute and settle about 100,000 transactions per second (TPS) with rollups.

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/optimism-soft-launches-ethereum-throughput-solution-with-defis-synthetix

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Six-Figure Bitcoin Price Predictions Back on The Table

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This has resulted in the renewal of six-figure price predictions for this market cycle, with some suggesting a top of $300,000 this time around.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $37,900 after reaching an intraday high of $40,000 according to Tradingview.com. The asset had started to fall back during the Asian trading session on Friday and had failed to break its previous high of $42,000 but the sentiment is still very bullish.

Total crypto market capitalization has topped a trillion dollars again as some of the altcoins, such as Polkadot, make monumental 24-hour gains.

When Will Bitcoin Top $100K?

Popular traders and analysts are back in the game of predicting prices and they’re largely in agreement that this market cycle will result in six figure Bitcoin prices.

Josh Rager said that he thinks Bitcoin will see a six-figure price by early 2022;

He added that at this peak, the name of ‘Bitcoin’ will be mentioned on every TV, phone, and tablet around the world.

“This could certainly be the cycle that leads to Bitcoin becoming a household name along with serious adoption from those who once mocked peer-to-peer digital money,”

Fellow trader ‘TraderKoz’, who has 28k followers on twitter added that at a guess he would say that this cycle takes us to $250k to $350k.

“From there, we have 3 years of accumulation in the $60-90k range before Bitcoin takes over the entire financial system. That bull run will take us to over $1,000,000,”

Michael Saylor, who’s institutional investment firm MicroStrategy has been buying up large swathes of Bitcoin, continues to post bullish tweets about the asset to his 330k followers;

The Institutional Effect

Aggregated derivative exchange data provider Bybit reported that Bitcoin institutional inflows are showing no signs of slowing down, adding that there may be a new round of buying by Grayscale.

Grayscale itself reported an assets under management (AUM) figure of $27.7 billion in its most recent update. The company has also just released its fourth-quarter report revealing that there was record investor demand in the period, with approximately $3.3 billion in inflows.

The story made such an impact that even Reuters picked it up.

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/six-figure-bitcoin-price-predictions-back-on-the-table/

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