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There’s a Chance Bitcoin Won’t Break $10k Until Next Year: Analyst Explains

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Bitcoin has been coiling for a breakout over the past few weeks. The cryptocurrency has traded in the low-$9,000s, stuck between heavy support at $8,500 and heavy resistance at $10,000.

Soon enough, analysts have said, something will break.

According to a prominent trader, Bitcoin is more likely to break this consolidation to the downside rather than the upside.

Bitcoin Won’t Break $10,000 Until 2021?

Per a report from International Business Times, former Wall Street investor Tone Vays thinks that Bitcoin may be stuck in a range until the end of the year.

He said that because of the crypto market’s tight correlation with equities, BTC may spend the rest of 2020 between $6,000-10,000. The insinuation, of course, being that Vays expects a potential correction in the S&P 500 or at least a flatlining in stock prices.

“Like I’ve been saying for months now, I have no reason to walk away from my prediction early in the year that Bitcoin is going to get stuck between $6,000 and $10,000 for the majority of this year,” he said.

Vays isn’t the first to have observed a correlation between the S&P and BTC.

A team of JP Morgan strategists led by Joshua Younger and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglo reported on the crypto market on June 11th. The group found that since the March crash, “Cryptocurrencies have traded more like risky assets like equities—a significant change relative to the prior couple of years.”

Two executives Goldman Sachs has also made a similar observation. They found that BTC does not give a consistent diversification benefit over traditional asset classes.

Even the biggest Bitcoin bulls have observed the correlation.

As reported by Bitcoinist previously, the pseudonymous analyst “PlanB” found that Bitcoin has a 95% R squared correlation with the S&P 500.

“Great thing that #Bitcoin is fully aligned with FED interests (QE to save banks & companies). BTC is correlated (95% R2) and cointegrated with US equities (S&P500). So BTC is not an uncorrelated asset and supported by FED actions,” he commented on the matter.

Bloomberg Analyst Begs to Differ

As normal, not all analysts share the same sentiments.

The bull case recently gained strength with a new analysis by Mike McGlone, a senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.

McGlone said on June 26th that he thinks Bitcoin is a “caged bull set for a breakout” towards $13,000:

“The more disdain from bulls should be for the better, keeping the price tilted upward for the consolidating crypto. Declining Bitcoin volatility reflects maturation toward a digital version of gold.”

This comes shortly after he said that BTC could hit $20,000-28,000 this year due to the 2020 block reward halving.

Featured Image from Shutterstock
Price tags: xbtusd, btcusd, btcusdt
Charts from TradingView.com
There's a Chance Bitcoin Won't Break $10k Until Next Year: Analyst Explains Why

Source: https://bitcoinist.com/theres-a-chance-bitcoin-wont-break-10k-until-next-year-analyst-explains/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=theres-a-chance-bitcoin-wont-break-10k-until-next-year-analyst-explains

Blockchain

LINK Increases by More Than 40% in a Day: Relief Rally or New Upward Move?

The ChainLink (LINK) price increased by 41% on Sept. 24. While the price has broken out from a bullish pattern, the current movement is still more likely to be a correction than the beginning of a new upward movement. LINK Bounces at Support The LINK price has been decreasing alongside a descending resistance line since […]

The post LINK Increases by More Than 40% in a Day: Relief Rally or New Upward Move? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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The ChainLink (LINK) price increased by 41% on Sept. 24. While the price has broken out from a bullish pattern, the current movement is still more likely to be a correction than the beginning of a new upward movement.

LINK Bounces at Support

The LINK price has been decreasing alongside a descending resistance line since it reached a high of $20.71 on Aug. 17. The decrease has been significant and continued until the price reached a low of $7.28 on Sept. 23. This movement validated the $7.50 area as support.

The $7.50 area is also strengthened by the presence of the 200-day moving average (MA). Once the price reached this area, it created a bullish engulfing candlestick, increasing all the way to $10.40 in a single day. The increase from low to high measured 41%.

Currently, the price is attempting to move above the minor $10.40 resistance area and possibly the descending resistance line drawn from the highs.

LINK MovementLINK Movement
LINK Chart By TradingView

Cryptocurrency trader @PostyXBT tweeted out a LINK chart, stating that the price is approaching the 200-day moving average (MA) support. As seen in the chart above, the price initiated a very strong bounce once it reached the MA.

LINK MovementLINK Movement
Source: Twitter

Reversal or Relief?

The six-hour chart shows that the price has broken out from a descending resistance line. The breakout was preceded by considerable bullish divergence in the RSI & MACD, increasing its validity.

LINK 6-hour Time-frameLINK 6-hour Time-frame
LINK Chart By TradingView

However, the daily chart does not confirm that the trend is bullish. The RSI is below 50, and the Stochastic Oscillator has not made a bullish cross. The MACD has just begun to increase, having created one higher momentum bar.

Until the price breaks out from the longer-term resistance line or a bullish cross transpires in the Stochastic Oscillator, we cannot state that the trend is bullish.

LINK Failed ReversalLINK Failed Reversal
LINK Chart By TradingView

Wave Count

Since the aforementioned Aug. 17 high, the LINK price has completed a five-wave bearish formation (shown in black below). Since waves 1 & 4 overlap, it is likely that the movement was a leading diagonal, also supported by the wedge-like shape.

Furthermore, volume decreased during the wave-5 bottom and picked up during the breakout, customary in such movements.

LINK Wave Count DiagonalLINK Wave Count Diagonal
LINK Chart By TradingView

In the longer-term, it is possible that this entire decrease has been the A wave (orange) of a longer-term A-B-C correction.

If so, the price could increase all the way to the 0.618 Fib level at $15.26 before resuming its downward movement.

LINK A-B-CLINK A-B-C
LINK Chart By TradingView

To conclude, while the LINK price is expected to increase in the short/medium-term, it is more likely that the price is still engulfed in a longer-term correction.

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Source: https://beincrypto.com/link-increases-by-more-than-40-in-a-day-relief-rally-or-new-upward-move/

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Do on-chain metrics show an overly bearish picture of the 2020 Bitcoin market?

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Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics suggest that the market is overly bearish. This has been the case for most of 2020. 

Do on-chain metrics show an overly bearish picture of the 2020 Bitcoin market?

Source: Coinmarketcap

Up till now, on-chain metrics are considered a reliable source of data for predicting Bitcoin’s market sentiment and price. It is assumed that the Bitcoin Network needs sufficient on-chain volume in order to fuel a bull market. 

Do on-chain metrics show an overly bearish picture of the 2020 Bitcoin market?

Source: Coinmarketcap

The current on-chain volume is higher than the 2018 and early 2019. The price is above 10k and has sustained at that level for over 4 months in a row. Trading volume does not pose a grim picture, unlike 2018. 

However, do on-chain metrics give complete information required for price prediction and making trading decisions? There are other metrics like Willy Woo’s Bitcoin network momentum, that help estimate the state of the market. 

Do on-chain metrics show an overly bearish picture of the 2020 Bitcoin market?

Source: Woobull Charts

Bitcoin’s network momentum was at its peak in 2016 till the end of 2018. However, following bull markets, there is a phase where the asset gathers momentum before hitting the next peak. In 2020, the on-chain volume has increased and ranges above the 200d MA, additionally, the momentum is gathering. This phase may be labeled the accumulation phase and there are no signs of a bearish market. In fact, if Bitcoin is trading $2141 above its fair price, would it be fair to term it bullish.

Another factor that doesn’t add up in the bearish narrative of Bitcoin is the profit of Hodlers. Currently, over 83% of Hodlers are profitable, as per data from CoinMarketCap.

Do on-chain metrics show an overly bearish picture of the 2020 Bitcoin market?

Source: Chainalysis

Hodlers are profitable to the extent that there is over $6.24 M in BTC Hodlers wallets with 100%+ unrealized profit. The Bitcoin derivatives market would give a nod to the bullish sentiment here as open interest in Bitcoin Futures has increased 40% in the past month. Despite the price volatility, institutional interest in Bitcoin has grown considerably. This is evident from the rise in open interest and daily trade volume on CME.

While on-chain metrics act as a quick reference, there are gaps in the predictions based on them. A retail trader on a spot or derivatives exchange is directly impacted by the movement of whales and institutions. Events like BTC Futures Contract expiration have an impact on the price and volume of the asset traded on spot exchanges. Considering derivatives market performance while making price predictions may fill some of these gaps. 

Source: https://eng.ambcrypto.com/do-on-chain-metrics-show-an-overly-bearish-picture-of-the-2020-bitcoin-market

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Samsung’s new blockchain pilots are all about transparently tracking medicine

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Samsung SDS will conduct a series of pilot projects in November to test blockchain-powered medicine distribution management. The goal of these tests is to guarantee transparency in the process of tracking pharmaceutical drugs.

According to Yankup, the IT branch of Samsung Group announced the pilot programs, named “Disruptive innovation technology for tracking drug distribution history,” at the BioPharma Cold Chain Logistics session in Seoul, South Korea.

Officials from Samsung SDS also said that they’ve received “several” participation applications for the pilots from unnamed pharmaceutical firms, distributors, and even medical institutions in South Korea.

Lee Eun-young, senior researcher at Samsung SDS, stated that the pilots will last between three and six months, commenting:

“Through the drug distribution history management service, it is possible to comply with regulations and innovate business by implementing product-specific history management, real-time distribution history tracking, and automatic reporting functions.”

During the announcement, Samsung’s IT branch said that the pilots would consist of an IoT-linked temperature history tracking service, which will be implemented along with automatic history management for incoming and outgoing goods. This has been chosen “to minimize handwritten input,” verify returns, and collections with the support of a secure database.

If successful, these pilots will be commercialized after passing domestic and foreign regulatory compliance in June of next year. Lee told local media:

“The value of blockchain in the healthcare industry is expected to grow from $176.80 million in 2018 to $5.61 billion in 2025, and by 2025, 55% of healthcare solutions are expected to adopt blockchain for commercial purposes.”

Daegu, the fourth-largest city in South Korea, recently announced its plans to allocate over $6 million towards blockchain and artificial intelligence education.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/samsungs-new-blockchain-pilots-are-all-about-transparently-tracking-medicine

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