Over recent weeks, the expectations of a parabolic Ethereum rally have become extremely prevalent.
Due to a confluence of fundamental and technical trends, analysts left and right are flipping bullish on the second-largest cryptocurrency.
Chris Burniske, a partner at Placeholder Capital, for instance, recently postulated that there is a world in which ETH hits $7,500:
“If BTC goes > $50,000 in the next cycle, and ETHBTC returns to its former ATH, then expect to see ETH > $7,500. To the mainstream ETH will be the new kid on the block — expect a frenzy to go with that realization,” Burniske explained, showing how a 3,000% Ethereum rally in the coming years may be feasible.
But according to a top trader at a prominent cryptocurrency fund, it may be a while before Ethereum establishes a new all-time high.
Ethereum Is Unlikely to Hit a New All-Time High Soon
During 2017 and 2018’s crypto bubble, Ethereum was the cryptocurrency in the spotlight. While it didn’t outperform some altcoins, it was seen as the “next big thing” aside from Bitcoin, rallying from under a dollar to as high as ~$1,400 in just around a year’s time.
ETH had rallied so far and so fast that at one point, some were expecting for Ethereum’s market capitalization to surpass that of Bitcoin in an event branded the “flippening.”
Such a powerful rally is unlikely to happen again, though, commentators have said.
Avi Felman of BlockTower Capital branded the ~$1,400 all-time high as a likely “red herring” event.
The rally to quadruple digits, he explained, was driven by initial coin offerings (ICOs).
The initial coin offerings of 2016-2018 mostly accepted Ethereum — and ETH only. This resulted in a parabolic increase in demand for the cryptocurrency as investors sought opportunities to multiply their holdings.
With Ethereum ICOs now largely a dead trend, the biggest demand source for the cryptocurrency is now gone, limiting upside:
“The ETH all time high price is likely a red herring, and was driven by a very specific dynamic (buy ETH to place in ICOs, no sell pressure because ICO treasuries didn’t think about that). BTC had no such dynamic. When BTC reaches its new ATH hard to see ETH anywhere near its ATH.” The ETH all time high price is likely a red herring, and was driven by a very specific dynamic (buy ETH to place in ICOs, no sell pressure because ICO treasuries didn’t think about that). BTC had no such dynamic. When BTC reaches its new ATH hard to see ETH anywhere near its ATH
— Avi IS RIGHT (@AviFelman) June 15, 2020 Bitcoin Likely to Lead the Crypto Market
Taking a technical and fundamental perspective, it’s hard not to see why Bitcoin won’t be leading the rest of the cryptocurrency market, Ethereum included.
Last month, Josh Olszewicz, a crypto analyst at Brave New Coin, observed that the Bitcoin dominance chart printed a golden cross. A golden cross takes place when a “relatively short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average,” and is often followed by a “bullish breakout.” Chart from Josh Olszewicz (@CarpeNoctum on Twitter), a crypto analyst at Brave New Coin. The chart is of Bitcoin’s dominance printing a “golden cross” formation. Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is also the “fastest horse in the race” due to the vast amounts of money being printed by central banks, billionaire hedge fund investor Paul Tudor Jones has said.
Featured Image from Shutterstock Price tags: ethusd Top Trader Explains Ethereum’s Rally to $1,400 in 2018 Was a “Red Herring” Event Source: https://bitcoinist.com/top-trader-explains-ethereums-rally-to-1400-in-2018-was-a-red-herring-event/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=top-trader-explains-ethereums-rally-to-1400-in-2018-was-a-red-herring-event
Crypto Market Analysis: 26th October 2020
In a week where equity markets have stagnated, bitcoin bucked the trend as it pushed through the $12,000 resistance level, as well as touching and seeing some resistance at $13,000. Altcoins were buoyed by bitcoin’s rise, with ethereum, XRP, litecoin and chainlink all showing upward trajectories too.
Simon Peters, analyst, eToro: Bitcoin blasts through $12,000 barrier
Bitcoin price action has dominated attention in the last week, rapidly reaching year to date highs. It approached and then subsequently smashed through the much-feted $12,000 mark with such strong momentum, there is every chance the cryptoasset could just push right on through to $14,000.
If we were to see some pullback towards $12,000, I would urge investors not to be too worried. We may end up in a period of consolidation just above that level. I’ve highlighted many times in these pages that there is still time in 2020 for a bitcoin bull run, and my view remains the same (Will 2020’s Q4 be an autumn of alts, or will they fall? 13th July).
So, what instigated last week’s bullish run? A number of positive developments in the crypto space, most notably PayPal announcing it would enable its users to pay for goods and services in cryptoassets. This would introduce a massive user base to crypto, with PayPal boasting 346m active accounts, all of whom will be able to hold and shop using bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and Litecoin once the service has been rolled out.
This positive development was compounded by a discussion earlier in the week on the IMF’s Cross Border Payments Panel, in which Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that a US CBDC continues to be on the radar, whilst also opening the door for private firms to get involved in the endeavour.
These developments are further backed on by positive statistical data. Glassnode’s investor sentiment index is gaining, open interest on bitcoin futures is increasing and short positions are unwinding. The combination of strong fundamentals and positive news for the cryptoasset are providing the rocket-fuel needed for bitcoin’s blast-off.
David Derhy, analyst, eToro: Look to $20,000 instead of back at $12,000
As Simon highlighted, the current run could simply push through all the way to $14,000. If that is the case, then the next level from a technical and fundamental perspective would be $20,000. With the US election coming up next month, further economic stimulus from the government is going to happen even if the size of that stimulus is still up for discussion. I am of the view that we won’t see a drop back down below $12,000 for a while yet.
With the reduced volatility we are seeing, institutional investors are more and more interested in buying bitcoin. Combine this with the host of listed companies also looking to add bitcoin to their balance sheets, and the springboard for bitcoin prices continues to look very positive.
Simon Peters, analyst, eToro: Stimulus fears could stoke the fire for Bitcoin
With the ‘if’ of economic stimulus in the US out of the way, what matters now is the ‘how much’ and the ‘where’. How much money is the US government going to be pumping into the economy? What areas will they target and does that strengthen the use case for bitcoin? As David mentioned, the size is dependent on who wins the election, but any outcome will almost certainly lead to stimulus. If the Fed will be funding this by adding US treasuries to its balance sheets, then this would surely reinforce the argument for bitcoin as an alternative currency. Both sides have also agreed for another stimulus check of $1,200 to every citizen, but the rest will most likely go towards preserving jobs.
Bitcoin SV long-term Price Analysis: 26 October
Disclaimer: The findings of the following article are the sole opinion of the writer and should not be taken as investment advice
While Bitcoin rallied above $13,000 once again, at press time, a few other altcoins were also making a dash for their immediate resistance levels. 10th-ranked Bitcoin SV’s price rose by 12.46 percent over the past one week, with a relatively high spike of 4.36 percent over the past 24 hours. However, the rally might note a period of turbulence soon.
Bitcoin SV 12-hour chart
At the time of writing, the 12-hour chart for Bitcoin SV was keeping up with the ascending triangle pattern and it seemed like the eventual breakout above $200 might take a while. As identified by the chart, the price did register a re-test of the parallel trendline of the pattern, but it did not complete a complete breach. With the price hovering right under $180, at press time, there was a high chance that the price would attain a breakout from the ascending triangle over the next few days, but the turnaround can be more drawn out as well.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin SV was receiving the underlying support of the 50-Moving Average, but a retest at $165 remained a possibility.
According to Stochastic RSI, the breakout downwards might surface within the next few days as the bearish indicator closes in on a crossover with the bullish line in the overbought zone.
Bitcoin 1-day chart
The 1-day chart for Bitcoin SV highlighted a rising wedge pattern, one that falls in line with the eventual bearish movement. While the breakout from the pattern might not take place over the current week, a pullback under $170 should unfold soon.
The price range between $180 and $170 appeared crucial as the crypto-asset has hardly noted higher consolidation at this range.
Finally, the On-balance volume, at press time, was dropping below the neutral zone, hence, the retail side might be exiting the market as strong hands might need to dip in again to pump the price. Speaking about volume, trading volume was extremely minimal as well, keeping the price movement highly volatile and unsure.
Treasury official appointed to crypto-risk management platform
Prominent Risk Management platform TRM Labs has appointed former Treasury Official Ari Redbord to a critical role. Former Treasury official Redboard, well known for his work on the Treasury’s FinCEN taskforce, will now represent TRM as its head of government and legal affairs. This appointment is the latest move by the Federal government in their […]
Prominent Risk Management platform TRM Labs has appointed former Treasury Official Ari Redbord to a critical role. Former Treasury official Redboard, well known for his work on the Treasury’s FinCEN taskforce, will now represent TRM as its head of government and legal affairs. This appointment is the latest move by the Federal government in their bid to regulate Cryptocurrency platforms.
The Co-founder of TRM, Esteban Castaño, said that the firm’s data could be essential in the Treasury’s ongoing war with financial fraud. He went on to say that TRM could offer valuable insight into the risks that pervade cryptocurrency markets, protecting consumers and businesses.
Ari Redbord’s previous work at the Treasury included working as an advisor for the undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. While his work with FinCEN focussed primarily on cryptocurrency markets and similar concerns, making him more than qualified for the position at TRM.
Appeasing The Treasury?
When asked whether Redbord’s appointment to head of government and legal affairs indicated a shift in favor of government regulation, Castaño became defensive and acted quickly to quash any doubts over the position. He insisted that TRM’s focus would not be on “being the long-arm of the law” and emphasized that the move would mean less government regulation of cryptocurrency platforms. :
“…a company like TRM allows for less regulation, quite frankly, by allowing governments around the world to be more comfortable than they can identify suspicious activity and get those bad actors out of this.”
The Treasury and other regulators have made numerous moves in recent weeks that would enable greater control of cryptocurrency platforms by the Federal Government. This push is part of a well-documented effort to combat money-laundering and other financial crimes on cryptocurrency platforms. The crypto community will likely see Redbord’s appointment as the US is coming one step closer to achieving that goal.
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