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Why a trader says Bitcoin is short-term bearish despite holding $30K

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A pseudonymous trader known as “Byzantine General” is short-term bearish as Bitcoin (BTC) continues to test the same $30,000 support area.

Although the price of Bitcoin is staying above a key support level, the trader said the price action is not bullish. He wrote:

“In the midst of all this chaos, here’s a bitcoin chart. Not much to do. It’s bearish no matter how you look at it. But we’re sitting on support, so no swing short opportunity either… It’s just waiting now. > YO needs to hold.”

“Options market is signaling a short-term bearish view”

Analysts see a similar trend from the options market and previous Bitcoin fractals. Fractals are technical candle chart patterns that analysts typically use to compare the current price action of Bitcoin to previous cycles.

According to analysts at the data analytics company Laevitas, the options market signals are short-term bearish view. They said:

“As Bitcoin consolidation continues, put/call ratio on @DeribitExchange is at 2 today. In last 24h, seeing decent buy volume on 26MAR 9000p, 13000p and 14000p. Options market is signaling a short-term bearish view.”

Bitcoin options traded instruments. Source: Laevitas

The options market has a larger impact on the price trend of Bitcoin now than before because the open interest is now hovering above $3 billion.

There are significantly more active options contracts and options traders compared to before. This means that if there is selling pressure coming from the options market, it would likely have a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin.

Based on the fractal that analysts at “Material Scientist” found, both historical price cycles and the options market data hint at a short-term consolidation phase. The analysts noted:

“Next fractal for #BTC – 10-day prediction: Low 30ks retest and then send it!”

BTC/USDT fractal. Source: Material Indicators

Consider the high miner position index

One of the possible reasons why the price of Bitcoin continues to range and stagnate could be the high selling pressure coming from miners.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the Miners’ Position Index is relatively high, which means miners are depositing Bitcoin to exchanges.

Since miners are one of the few external and unmatched sources of selling pressure in the Bitcoin market, a high Miners’ Position Index usually precedes a sell-off.

Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index. Source: CryptoQuant

On Jan. 26, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said:

“BTC Miners’ Position Index hit the 8-year high. They’ve been moving an unusual amount of Bitcoins lately. It seems they’re continuously realizing profits since 42k. This is one of the reasons why I keep my bearish bias.”

As long as the options market is leaning towards a bearish short-term trend and miners continue to sell BTC, the price of Bitcoin is unlikely to break out in the near term.

However, the $34,000 resistance level remains the key area in the foreseeable future. If Bitcoin surges above it, there is a chance for a quick trend reversal to the upside.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-a-trader-says-bitcoin-is-short-term-bearish-despite-holding-30k

Blockchain

XRP Price Analysis: 27 February

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Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be taken as investment advice

After trading around the $0.25-valuation for a significant amount of time in 2020, XRP’s value surged. However, the alt’s aforementioned surge was quickly brought to a halt thanks to Ripple and XRP’s recent SEC troubles and the overall trend reversal in the general crypto-market. The same was evident after XRP fell on the price charts to correspond with BTC’s own depreciation below the $50k-level.

At the time of writing, XRP was being traded at $0.439 with a market cap of over $19 billion. Over the last 7 days, the altcoin registered a dip of close to 24 percent, diminishing the impact of the marginal gains it secured over the last 24 hours.

XRP 1-day chart 

Source: XRP/USD, TradingView

XRP’s price has been on a downtrend right from the start of the week. After multiple attempts at breaching the resistance level at $0.581, the coin fell, with the altcoin trending lower and very close to testing the support at $0.40. Given the strong bearish sentiment in the market, XRP may soon need to bounce off the press time support and head closer to its resistance if a trend reversal takes place.

However, if the coin loses the support at the $0.40-level, XRP’s price is likely to plummet and head towards the support level at $0.261 – a range last visited in January 2021. For now, traders with short positions can stand to take profit if the first support level fails over the next few days.

Rationale 

XRP’s technical indicators painted a rather bearish picture for XRP. The MACD indicator underwent a bearish crossover on 19 February and showed no sign of a reversal. At press time, the Signal line and the MACD line were far apart, negating the possibility of an upcoming bullish crossover. The RSI indicator concurred and found itself very close to the oversold zone, highlighting the strong presence of sellers dictating XRP’s market.

Important levels to watch out for 

Resistance: $0.58

Support: $0.40, $0.26

Entry: $0.42

Take Profit: $0.26

Stop Loss: $0.56

Risk/Reward: 1.11

Conclusion 

XRP’s price woes may not yet be over. The altcoin, at the time of writing, was testing its immediate support and if the support is breached in the coming 24-48 hours, then XRP’s price may soon find itself in unsavoury territory while resisting a valuation last seen in January 2021 around its second support at $0.26.


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Source: https://ambcrypto.com/xrp-price-analysis-27-february

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China: Private banks to help with the rollout of booming digital yuan

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The nation is leading in the development of a state-backed digital currency and banks are joining that cause.

China’s private banks step up

Some Chinese private banks are joining in on the nation’s rollout of its upcoming digital currency, as per local reports. Officially the “Digital Currency, Electronic Payment” (DCEP), the so-termed digital yuan is scheduled for a 2022 launch.

More than 2 billion yuan ($309.30 million) has already been spent using China’s new digital currency so far in 4 million separate transactions, said PBoC governor Yi Gang in November. These were enabled by state banks in the past, but private firms are joining in the race now.

MYBank, an online bank backed by Alibaba’s fintech giant Ant Group, is one of such firms. It said it would advance the trial “pursuant” to the overall arrangement of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), the country’s central bank and issuer of the digital yuan.

Tencent-backed WeBank is also participating in the digital yuan pilot, a report on state-backed China Securities News confirmed. The firm, however, did not respond to comments about its involvement.

The two firms will soon make an appearance on PBoC’s official digital yuan app, one that was launched last year and has been used to “airdrop” digital yuan to registered Chinese citizens in isolated trials.

The move is the first from China’s privately-owned financial companies and banks, compared to earlier trials which saw participation by only state-owned banks. As such, the e-wallets from the MYBank and WeBank will be similar to those offered by the six state-owned lenders in previous trials.

Blockchains make big push in China

Apart from digital currencies, state-backed blockchain systems are also making an appearance in China. As per previous reports, China’s Blockchain Service Network (BSN), has already gone live in over 80 Chinese cities—the open-source protocol layer serves as a foundation for businesses to build Ethereum-based enterprise solutions.

The BSN is itself based on Ethereum and is available via public city nodes throughout mainland China. 

Meanwhile, It’s not necessarily as private as cryptocurrencies. As per a previous CryptoSlate report, China wants to eventually use its digital yuan to track all transactions over $14,000 in the coming years.

This would be done to prevent fraud, money laundering, and even to prevent a possible capital outflow from China to abroad.

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Source: https://cryptoslate.com/china-private-banks-to-help-with-the-rollout-of-booming-digital-yuan/

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What does a positive Coinbase premium mean for Bitcoin’s price?

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Bitcoin’s price action on Coinbase has stood the test of time, especially since the crypto-exchange’s user statistics have often highlighted institutional participation in the market. The current Bitcoin bull run is largely influenced by institutional demand and buying. By extension, price action on Coinbase and other metrics can be deemed to signal traders’ sentiment too.

In that regard, one key metric is the Coinbase premium. With Bitcoin’s price strictly rangebound under $50,000 at press time, the Coinbase premium has turned positive, based on data from CryptoQuant.

Coinbase premium turned positive, Bitcoin bull run is on?

Source: Twitter

Since the Coinbase premium turned positive, a positive change in Bitcoin’s price in the short run can be projected. Here, it is worth mentioning that for a while, the same metric was in the negative.

Further, another metric that was looking extremely bullish at the time of writing was the Spent Output Profit Ratio.

Coinbase premium turned positive, Bitcoin bull run is on?

Source: Twitter

Based on the SOPR chart from Glassnode, the bull run may make a comeback in phases. The highlighted regions in the attached chart signal the points where the bottom and top were reset. This happened in mid-January, the last week of January, and on 26 February 2021. For the same, there are a few signs to look out for and each would further support the Bitcoin narrative.

One of the top signs is consistently positive Coinbase premium. Other signs from miners include increased inflows from miners on top exchanges, with the same fueling selling pressure on Bitcoin. When selling pressure hits a peak, the price drops as it did from the $58,640- level.

The complete reset of the Bitcoin Futures funding rates is yet another sign. The funding rate was reset, based on the SOPR chart from CryptoQuant, with the same underlining that Bitcoin lows and tops had been reset too. It is common for traders to bet high on leverage, long credit, and consequently, short volume. However, the cycle is complete when the volume increases and the price of Bitcoin pushes the leverage even higher.

Finally, there are other metrics like the Grayscale Bitcoin premium that has turned negative and signaled a drop in institutional demand. What does this entail? That’s a tricky question to answer. What’s evident, however, is that the two metrics are offering contrasting views on Bitcoin’s price performance.


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Source: https://ambcrypto.com/what-does-a-positive-coinbase-premium-mean-for-bitcoins-price

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